Waalwijk 1-1 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Waalwijk face PEC Zwolle.

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Analysis

PEC Zwolle make the trip to Mandemakers Stadion to face Waalwijk in Eredivisie (matchday 33). The match kicks off on Sunday 12 May 2024 at 14:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Waalwijk have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Waalwijk have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

PEC Zwolle's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Waalwijk against 0.80 for PEC Zwolle. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Waalwijk's last 10 home games and PEC Zwolle's last 10 away games) — Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, PEC Zwolle in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Waalwijk 2–1 PEC Zwolle — a Waalwijk win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Waalwijk — key trading statistics (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 56% versus PEC Zwolle 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 61% | PEC Zwolle 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.89 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.820 / defence 0.952 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.885 / defence 1.358. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.458. PEC Zwolle's defence rating of 1.358 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Waalwijk's projected output up. Data: built from Waalwijk's last 66 games and PEC Zwolle's last 32.

Result probabilities: Waalwijk 51% | Draw 26% | PEC Zwolle 23%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 1.95 | Draw 3.90 | PEC Zwolle 4.31. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.89 / 1.23) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waalwijk if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Waalwijk's last 10 home games and PEC Zwolle's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Waalwijk 70% (last 10 home games) | PEC Zwolle 60% (last 10 away games).

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