PEC Zwolle 1-0 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PEC Zwolle at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs Heracles encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 32 as PEC Zwolle welcome Heracles to IJsseldelta Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 May 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, PEC Zwolle have posted 6W 3D 1L at IJsseldelta Stadion — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at IJsseldelta Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Heracles away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, PEC Zwolle have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (0.80 vs 0.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. PEC Zwolle register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Heracles in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, PEC Zwolle have won 5, Heracles 4, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 4.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 2–8 with Heracles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
PEC Zwolle trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Heracles trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PEC Zwolle 63% and Heracles 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 54% | Heracles 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 2.44 xG and Heracles 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.948 / defence 0.986 | Heracles attack 0.807 / defence 1.508. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.285. Heracles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.508 — this is suppressing PEC Zwolle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 PEC Zwolle games / 65 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 66% | Draw 22% | Heracles 12%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 1.52 | Draw 4.55 | Heracles 8.33. The model has a clear lean to PEC Zwolle (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.44 / 1.02) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PEC Zwolle as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 70% | Heracles 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: IJsseldelta Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 66% | Draw 22% | Heracles 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 61% | xG PEC Zwolle 2.44 / Heracles 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.948 / def 0.986 | Heracles attack 0.807 / def 1.508 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.44
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Heracles xG
61%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Heracles kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Heracles kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at IJsseldelta Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 0 Heracles.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at IJsseldelta Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Heracles part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 66% chance of winning, Heracles a 12% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Heracles?
Record (9 meetings): PEC Zwolle 5W | Draws 0 | Heracles 4W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Heracles in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Heracles (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PEC Zwolle's attack rating (0.95) and Heracles's defence rating (1.51), the model arrives at 2.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.3%), 1-1 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
66%
1.51
22%
4.52
12%
8.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.44
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
3.46
1.02
Heracles xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
8.55
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
9%
11.50
Win to Nil
24%
4.20
1%
98.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 2.44 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.02 for Heracles, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 65 games, going 18W 21D 26L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Heracles sit at 0.88 PPG from 65 outings (14W 15D 36L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: PEC Zwolle on 1.15 PPG, Heracles on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 14W 8D 10L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — PEC Zwolle are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Heracles have taken 0.53 points per game from 32 outings (4W 5D 23L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.17 scored and 2.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Current Season
Heracles
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Heracles in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 18W 21D 26L in their last 65 games (1.15 PPG), while Heracles have gone 14W 15D 36L in their last 65 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Heracles away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.56 PPG; Heracles away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PEC Zwolle and Heracles runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2025, when Heracles won 8-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PEC Zwolle's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
4
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Heracles?
From 10 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 6, Heracles have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when PEC Zwolle 1-0 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Heracles?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 53%, Heracles 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (PEC Zwolle) and 66% (Heracles). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 50% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 66% of Heracles's.
Do PEC Zwolle and Heracles tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Heracles in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PEC Zwolle edge out Heracles 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Heracles 1-0 at IJsseldelta Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 2.44 xG and Heracles 1.02 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. PEC Zwolle fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Heracles landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.95 / defence 0.99 against Heracles attack 0.81 / defence 1.51, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 66% | Draw 22% | Heracles 12%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 54%, Heracles 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Heracles's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.15 PPG, Heracles 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Heracles (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.