Fortuna Sittard 3-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Sittard at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 2 as Fortuna Sittard welcome Cambuur to Fortuna Sittard Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 August 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fortuna Sittard — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Fortuna Sittard have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fortuna Sittard's home record at Fortuna Sittard Stadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cambuur stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Cambuur have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fortuna Sittard at 0.80 PPG versus Cambuur's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Fortuna Sittard, 2 for Cambuur and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2023, ended 2–1 with Fortuna Sittard winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Fortuna Sittard in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Sittard 77% and Cambuur 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fortuna Sittard 69% | Cambuur 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.85 xG and Cambuur 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 1.016 / defence 1.099 | Cambuur attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.379. Data: 35 Fortuna Sittard games / 1 Cambuur games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 50% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 25%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Cambuur 4.00. Fortuna Sittard hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortuna Sittard at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Sittard offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Sittard 100% | Cambuur 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 50% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.85 / Cambuur 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 1.016 / def 1.099 | Cambuur attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Cambuur xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur?
Fortuna Sittard 3 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 50% chance of winning, Cambuur a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Cambuur?
Record (4 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 2W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 2W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Cambuur in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Cambuur (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fortuna Sittard's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Cambuur's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Fortuna Sittard's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
50%
2.02
25%
4.01
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
3.14
1.29
Cambuur xG
2.02
50%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
16%
6.39
Win to Nil
14%
7.31
4%
25.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.3 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.29 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fortuna Sittard's recent record stands at 11W 7D 17L from 35 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cambuur, meanwhile, have gone 20W 9D 6L across 35 games — 1.97 PPG, with D-D-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cambuur by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fortuna Sittard heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fortuna Sittard have managed 7W 4D 6L from 17 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambuur's away record stands at 9W 4D 4L across 17 trips, a 1.82 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 2.00 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Sittard have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games; Cambuur in 69%.
Last 35 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Early Season
Cambuur
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 11W 7D 17L in their last 35 games (1.14 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 20W 9D 6L in their last 35 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.47 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Fortuna Sittard have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2022, when Cambuur won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Sittard's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Fortuna Sittard
0
Draws
2
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Cambuur?
From 5 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 3, Cambuur have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Fortuna Sittard 3-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and Cambuur?
Fortuna Sittard have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fortuna Sittard at 82%, Cambuur at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Fortuna Sittard and 65% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Fortuna Sittard's games and 71% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 65% of Cambuur's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and Cambuur tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Sittard cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat Cambuur 3-1 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.85 xG and Cambuur 1.29 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 1.02 / defence 1.10 against Cambuur attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 50% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 25%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 69%, Cambuur 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Cambuur's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Fortuna Sittard winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.