Willem II 2-1 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Jong Utrecht travel to Koning Willem II Stadion to take on Willem II. The game is scheduled for Friday 29 August 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Willem II stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Willem II have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Koning Willem II Stadion, Willem II have gone 1W 0D 9L this season (10 games, 0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.30 lags behind their overall 0.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Koning Willem II Stadion this season.
Jong Utrecht — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jong Utrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Utrecht have posted 1W 0D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Willem II) versus 0.90 (Jong Utrecht). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Willem II, 0 for Jong Utrecht and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Willem II in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Jong Utrecht in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 58% versus Jong Utrecht 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 49% | Jong Utrecht 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.37 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.695 / defence 1.079 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.760 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.681 / away 1.269. Willem II's attack strength of 0.695 is below the league average — the 1.37 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Willem II games / 41 Jong Utrecht games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Willem II 44% | Draw 27% | Jong Utrecht 28%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Jong Utrecht 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Willem II 70% | Jong Utrecht 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 29 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 44% | Draw 27% | Jong Utrecht 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Willem II 1.37 / Jong Utrecht 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.695 / def 1.079 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.760 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.681 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Willem II (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Jong Utrecht xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Willem II vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 August 2025 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Jong Utrecht?
Willem II 2 - 1 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Willem II vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Willem II vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 44% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Willem II and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Jong Utrecht?
Record (4 meetings): Willem II 2W | Draws 2 | Jong Utrecht 0W.
What form are Willem II and Jong Utrecht in?
Willem II (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Willem II's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Jong Utrecht's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/41 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
44%
2.25
27%
3.69
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.41
1.04
Jong Utrecht xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
7%
13.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Willem II and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Willem II and 1.04 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Willem II have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 8W 9D 24L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong Utrecht's form line: 5W 12D 24L from 41 games, 0.66 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Willem II on 0.80 PPG, Jong Utrecht on 0.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Willem II have posted 0.75 PPG from 20 outings (4W 3D 13L).
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 1W 5D 14L from 20 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Willem II are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.90 scored and 2.15 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Early Season
Jong Utrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 8W 9D 24L in their last 41 games (0.80 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 5W 12D 24L in their last 41 (0.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Willem II's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 0.75 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Willem II and Jong Utrecht runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 16 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2023, when Willem II won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Willem II's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Willem II
3
Draws
0
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Jong Utrecht?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 3, Jong Utrecht have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2026, when Jong Utrecht 1-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Jong Utrecht?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 60%, Jong Utrecht 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Willem II and 60% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II have failed to score in 30% of games; Jong Utrecht in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Willem II's games and 55% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Willem II's matches and 60% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Willem II and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Willem II edge out Jong Utrecht 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Jong Utrecht 2-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.37 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.04 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.69 / defence 1.08 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.76 / defence 1.18, drawn from 3/41 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 44% | Draw 27% | Jong Utrecht 28%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 49%, Jong Utrecht 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 0.80 PPG, Jong Utrecht 0.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.