Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Waalwijk at 65% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mandemakers Stadion plays host to Waalwijk versus Jong Ajax in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Friday 18 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Waalwijk's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Waalwijk have posted 4W 5D 1L at Mandemakers Stadion — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong Ajax (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Ajax's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Waalwijk register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Jong Ajax in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Across 3 previous meetings, Waalwijk are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2026, ended 2–0 with Waalwijk winning.
The historical record gives Waalwijk a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Waalwijk — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Jong Ajax — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 78% and Jong Ajax 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 63% | Jong Ajax 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 2.58 xG and Jong Ajax 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.129 / defence 1.003 | Jong Ajax attack 0.875 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Jong Ajax bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Waalwijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Waalwijk games / 48 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 65% | Draw 17% | Jong Ajax 17%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 1.54 | Draw 5.88 | Jong Ajax 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Waalwijk (65%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.86. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.86 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.58 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 65% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 80% | Jong Ajax 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 18 Dec 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 65% | Draw 17% | Jong Ajax 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 67% | xG Waalwijk 2.58 / Jong Ajax 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.129 / def 1.003 | Jong Ajax attack 0.875 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.58
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Jong Ajax xG
67%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax kick off?
Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 18 December 2026 at Mandemakers Stadion.
Where is Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax part of?
Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 65% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 17% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Waalwijk and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Jong Ajax?
Record (3 meetings): Waalwijk 3W | Draws 0 | Jong Ajax 0W.
What form are Waalwijk and Jong Ajax in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Jong Ajax (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 1.13x the league average against Jong Ajax's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 2.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong Ajax's attack (0.88x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.9%), 3-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
65%
1.53
17%
5.73
17%
5.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
1 – 1
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.58
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.86
1.28
Jong Ajax xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.73
17%
Draw
5.80
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
8%
13.14
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
1%
76.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 2.58 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.28 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 3.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 17W 18D 14L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Ajax's form line: 12W 10D 27L from 49 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Waalwijk are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong Ajax.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 1.54 PPG from 24 outings (10W 7D 7L).
On the road, Jong Ajax have gone 5W 4D 15L from 24 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Waalwijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Waalwijk are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 1.33 scored and 2.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Jong Ajax in 63%.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 17W 18D 14L in their last 49 games (1.41 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 12W 10D 27L in their last 49 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Jong Ajax away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.54 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Waalwijk go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Waalwijk
0
Draws
0
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Jong Ajax?
From 3 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 3, Jong Ajax have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Jong Ajax 0-2 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Jong Ajax?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Waalwijk, 67% for Jong Ajax — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Waalwijk and 62% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Waalwijk's games and 67% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Waalwijk's matches and 62% of Jong Ajax's.
Do Waalwijk and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.