Telstar 1-1 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Jong AZ at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Telstar vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Telstar host Jong AZ at 711 Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 12 January 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Telstar stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at 711 Stadion, Telstar have gone 4W 0D 6L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Telstar are significantly better at 711 Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Jong AZ are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Telstar have won 2, Jong AZ 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2023, ended 1–3 with Jong AZ winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Telstar in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 48% versus Jong AZ 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 48% | Jong AZ 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.53 xG and Jong AZ 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.832 / defence 1.244 | Jong AZ attack 0.894 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.403. Data: 58 Telstar games / 58 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 36% | Draw 26% | Jong AZ 38%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Jong AZ 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Telstar 70% | Jong AZ 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: 711 Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 Jan 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 36% | Draw 26% | Jong AZ 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Telstar 1.53 / Jong AZ 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 0.832 / def 1.244 | Jong AZ attack 0.894 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Jong AZ xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs Jong AZ kick off?
Telstar vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 January 2024 at 711 Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs Jong AZ?
Telstar 1 - 1 Jong AZ.
Where is Telstar vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at 711 Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs Jong AZ part of?
Telstar vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 36% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Telstar and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Jong AZ?
Record (5 meetings): Telstar 2W | Draws 1 | Jong AZ 2W.
What form are Telstar and Jong AZ in?
Telstar (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Telstar's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Jong AZ's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Telstar's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
36%
2.77
26%
3.79
38%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Telstar xG
Total xG
3.08
1.56
Jong AZ xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.67
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
21%
4.75
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
8%
13.18
8%
12.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.9 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Telstar and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Telstar and 1.56 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Telstar have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 18W 13D 27L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ's form line: 22W 13D 23L from 58 games, 1.36 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Telstar on 1.16 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Telstar have posted 1.36 PPG from 28 outings (11W 5D 12L).
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 8W 4D 16L from 28 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Telstar are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.52 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 18W 13D 27L in their last 58 games (1.16 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 22W 13D 23L in their last 58 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or Jong AZ away?
Telstar's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.36 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Telstar's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Telstar
3
Draws
2
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Jong AZ?
From 8 meetings on record, Telstar have won 3, Jong AZ have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2025, when Jong AZ 1-2 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and Jong AZ?
Telstar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Telstar see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 50%, Jong AZ 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Telstar and 68% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Telstar have failed to score in 32% of games; Jong AZ in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Telstar's games and 61% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Telstar vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Telstar's matches and 68% of Jong AZ's.
Do Telstar and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Telstar and Jong AZ share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at 711 Stadion, Regular Season - 21, as Telstar and Jong AZ drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.53 xG and Jong AZ 1.56 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.83 / defence 1.24 against Jong AZ attack 0.89 / defence 1.16, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 36% | Draw 26% | Jong AZ 38%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 48%, Jong AZ 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Telstar 1.16 PPG, Jong AZ 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong AZ (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.