Jong Utrecht 0-0 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 39%, yet in-form VVV Venlo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong Utrecht vs VVV Venlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VVV Venlo make the trip to Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch to face Jong Utrecht in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Monday 15 January 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Jong Utrecht (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Jong Utrecht are significantly better at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch than their overall form suggests.
VVV Venlo's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. VVV Venlo are 0.70 PPG clear of Jong Utrecht in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Jong Utrecht lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2023, ended 1–4 with VVV Venlo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Jong Utrecht — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
VVV Venlo — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 45% versus VVV Venlo 72%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 45% | VVV Venlo 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.30 xG and VVV Venlo 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.806 / defence 0.886 | VVV Venlo attack 0.899 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.437. Data: 58 Jong Utrecht games / 58 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 39% | Draw 30% | VVV Venlo 31%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | VVV Venlo 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong Utrecht are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form VVV Venlo (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 50% | VVV Venlo 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 15 Jan 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 39% | Draw 30% | VVV Venlo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.30 / VVV Venlo 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.806 / def 0.886 | VVV Venlo attack 0.899 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.14
VVV Venlo xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 15 January 2024 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs VVV Venlo?
Jong Utrecht 0 - 0 VVV Venlo.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs VVV Venlo part of?
Jong Utrecht vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 39% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Jong Utrecht and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and VVV Venlo?
Record (5 meetings): Jong Utrecht 1W | Draws 1 | VVV Venlo 3W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and VVV Venlo in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. VVV Venlo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jong Utrecht's attack rating (0.81) and VVV Venlo's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VVV Venlo's attack (0.90x) against Jong Utrecht's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
39%
2.59
30%
3.31
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.44
1.14
VVV Venlo xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
12%
8.13
8%
11.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.14 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong Utrecht come into this having played 58 games, going 11W 13D 34L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VVV Venlo sit at 1.45 PPG from 58 outings (22W 18D 18L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VVV Venlo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Jong Utrecht's home form reads 9W 9D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.79 PPG overall — Jong Utrecht are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, VVV Venlo have taken 1.46 points per game from 28 outings (11W 8D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Jong Utrecht are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.52 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VVV Venlo in 72%.
Last 58 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 11W 13D 34L in their last 58 games (0.79 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 22W 18D 18L in their last 58 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or VVV Venlo away?
VVV Venlo's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.29 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VVV Venlo won 4-1 on 25 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Utrecht have gone 0W 4D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VVV Venlo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong Utrecht
4
Draws
4
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and VVV Venlo?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 2, VVV Venlo have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Jong Utrecht 2-2 VVV Venlo.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and VVV Venlo?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong Utrecht see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 36%, VVV Venlo 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Jong Utrecht) and 61% (VVV Venlo).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play VVV Venlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 71% of VVV Venlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 61% of VVV Venlo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Jong Utrecht's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht and VVV Venlo finished level at 0-0 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.30 xG and VVV Venlo 1.14 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jong Utrecht fell 1.3 short of their projected output. VVV Venlo landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.81 / defence 0.89 against VVV Venlo attack 0.90 / defence 0.99, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 39% | Draw 30% | VVV Venlo 31%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 45%, VVV Venlo 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, VVV Venlo arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.