Telstar 0-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Telstar at 38% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Telstar vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Den Bosch make the trip to 711 Stadion to face Telstar in Eerste Divisie (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Friday 26 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Telstar (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Telstar have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Telstar are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Den Bosch's record over their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Den Bosch have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Telstar, 0.80 for Den Bosch — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Telstar have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Den Bosch managing 1 and 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Nov 2023, ended Telstar 4–1 Den Bosch — a Telstar win.
The head-to-head data gives Telstar an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Telstar — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 48% versus Den Bosch 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 47% | Den Bosch 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.38 xG and Den Bosch 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.778 / defence 1.180 | Den Bosch attack 0.775 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.383. Telstar's attack rating of 0.778 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.38. Den Bosch's attack rating of 0.775 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.26. Data: built from Telstar's last 60 games and Den Bosch's last 60.
Result probabilities: Telstar 38% | Draw 28% | Den Bosch 33%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 2.60 | Draw 3.55 | Den Bosch 3.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Telstar are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Telstar 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Telstar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though recent form (Telstar's last 10 home games and Den Bosch's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Telstar 70% (last 10 home games) | Den Bosch 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 23 | Venue: 711 Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 38% | Draw 28% | Den Bosch 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Telstar 1.38 / Den Bosch 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 0.778 / def 1.180 | Den Bosch attack 0.775 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Telstar (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Den Bosch xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Telstar vs Den Bosch FAQs
What time does Telstar vs Den Bosch kick off?
Telstar vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 26 January 2024 at 711 Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs Den Bosch?
Telstar 0 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is Telstar vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at 711 Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs Den Bosch part of?
Telstar vs Den Bosch is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 23) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 38% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Telstar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Telstar and Den Bosch will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Telstar vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Telstar's attack rating (0.78) and Den Bosch's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.78x) against Telstar's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from Telstar's last 60 games and Den Bosch's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Telstar Win
38%
2.60
28%
3.55
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Telstar xG
Total xG
2.64
1.26
Den Bosch xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
11%
9.20
8%
11.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Telstar vs Den Bosch Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Telstar and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Telstar and 1.26 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Telstar have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 18W 14D 28L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Den Bosch's form line: 14W 10D 36L from 60 games, 0.87 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Telstar against 0.87 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Telstar have posted 1.34 PPG from their last 29 home games (11W 6D 12L).
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 4W 4D 21L from their last 29 away games — 0.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Telstar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Telstar are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.17 scored and 2.12 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
Telstar (Home) vs Den Bosch (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Telstar
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Telstar vs Den Bosch Form FAQs
What form are Telstar and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 18W 14D 28L in their last 60 games (1.13 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 14W 10D 36L in their last 60 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or Den Bosch away?
Telstar's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.34 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Telstar and Den Bosch, the earliest from October 2021. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 23 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Telstar won Den Bosch 1-4 Telstar on 17 Nov 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Telstar have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Telstar
3
Draws
1
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Telstar vs Den Bosch H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Den Bosch?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Telstar have won 6, Den Bosch have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and Den Bosch last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 May 2025: Telstar 2-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and Den Bosch?
Telstar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Telstar see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 52%, Den Bosch 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Telstar) and 62% (Den Bosch). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Telstar have failed to score in 31% of games; Den Bosch in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Telstar vs Den Bosch Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Telstar and Den Bosch matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Telstar's recent matches and 45% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Telstar and Den Bosch matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Telstar's matches and 62% of Den Bosch's.
Do Telstar and Den Bosch matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Telstar's recent matches and 72% of Den Bosch's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Telstar's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at 711 Stadion, Regular Season - 23, as Telstar and Den Bosch drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.38 xG and Den Bosch 1.26 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Telstar fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Den Bosch landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.78 / defence 1.18 against Den Bosch attack 0.78 / defence 1.08, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 38% | Draw 28% | Den Bosch 33%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 47%, Den Bosch 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Den Bosch's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Telstar 1.13 PPG, Den Bosch 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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