Cambuur 1-2 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambuur at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 23 as Cambuur welcome FC OSS to Cambuur Stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 29 January 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Cambuur have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur at Cambuur Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC OSS — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Cambuur carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Cambuur, 0 for FC OSS and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 9.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2023, ended 8–1 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 9.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cambuur trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
FC OSS trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 56% versus FC OSS 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 71% | FC OSS 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.99 xG and FC OSS 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.237 / defence 1.243 | FC OSS attack 0.558 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.344. Data: 21 Cambuur games / 60 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 61% | Draw 23% | FC OSS 16%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | FC OSS 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cambuur as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 90% | FC OSS 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 29 Jan 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 61% | Draw 23% | FC OSS 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Cambuur 1.99 / FC OSS 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.237 / def 1.243 | FC OSS attack 0.558 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
0.93
FC OSS xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs FC OSS kick off?
Cambuur vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 29 January 2024 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs FC OSS?
Cambuur 1 - 2 FC OSS.
Where is Cambuur vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs FC OSS part of?
Cambuur vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 61% chance of winning, FC OSS a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cambuur and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and FC OSS?
Record (1 meetings): Cambuur 1W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 0W.
What form are Cambuur and FC OSS in?
Cambuur (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. FC OSS (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cambuur's attack at 1.24x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
61%
1.64
23%
4.36
16%
6.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Cambuur xG
Total xG
2.92
0.93
FC OSS xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
6.26
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
14%
7.33
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
2%
45.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Cambuur and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Cambuur and 0.93 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs FC OSS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Cambuur have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 15W 8D 32L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC OSS's form line: 12W 9D 34L from 55 games, 0.82 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cambuur on 0.96 PPG, FC OSS on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 1.00 PPG from 27 outings (8W 3D 16L).
On the road, FC OSS have gone 3W 6D 18L from 27 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cambuur are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 0.93 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 15W 8D 32L in their last 55 games (0.96 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 12W 9D 34L in their last 55 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or FC OSS away?
Cambuur's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.00 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Cambuur have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2023, when Cambuur won 1-8 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cambuur's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cambuur
1
Draws
2
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and FC OSS?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 3, FC OSS have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when FC OSS 1-2 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and FC OSS?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 52%, FC OSS 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Cambuur and 48% for FC OSS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur have failed to score in 37% of games; FC OSS in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Cambuur's recent matches and 48% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambuur vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Cambuur's matches and 48% of FC OSS's.
Do Cambuur and FC OSS tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC OSS defy the odds to beat Cambuur 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat Cambuur 1-2 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.99 xG and FC OSS 0.93 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cambuur fell 1.0 short of their projected output. FC OSS outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.24 / defence 1.24 against FC OSS attack 0.56 / defence 0.98, drawn from 21/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 61% | Draw 23% | FC OSS 16%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a FC OSS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 71%, FC OSS 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
FC OSS's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 0.96 PPG, FC OSS 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.