MVV 3-2 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates MVV at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this MVV vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
MVV and Roda meet at De Geusselt in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 17:45 UTC.
Current Form
MVV's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at De Geusselt, MVV have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Roda (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Roda have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — MVV have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Roda in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Roda hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Roda winning.
It is worth noting that Roda have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
MVV half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Roda half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 61% versus Roda 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 66% | Roda 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 2.15 xG and Roda 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 1.328 / defence 0.894 | Roda attack 1.067 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.643 / away 1.291. MVV carry an above-average attack strength of 1.328 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 61 MVV games / 61 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 58% | Draw 21% | Roda 21%. Fair-value odds: MVV 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | Roda 4.76. The model has a clear lean to MVV (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is MVV at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.38 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: MVV 70% | Roda 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 58% | Draw 21% | Roda 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 63% | xG MVV 2.15 / Roda 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 1.328 / def 0.894 | Roda attack 1.067 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.643 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: MVV (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Roda xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Roda kick off?
MVV vs Roda kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Roda?
MVV 3 - 2 Roda.
Where is MVV vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Roda part of?
MVV vs Roda is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 58% chance of winning, Roda a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both MVV and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Roda?
Record (6 meetings): MVV 0W | Draws 1 | Roda 5W.
What form are MVV and Roda in?
MVV (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Roda (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from MVV's attack rating (1.33) and Roda's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 2.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Roda's attack (1.07x) against MVV's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
58%
1.72
21%
4.73
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
MVV xG
Total xG
3.38
1.23
Roda xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
12%
8.61
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
2%
41.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are MVV and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for MVV and 1.23 for Roda, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Roda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
MVV come into this having played 61 games, going 22W 16D 23L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.72 PPG from 61 outings (29W 18D 14L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for MVV against 1.72 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
MVV's home form reads 13W 9D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.40 points per game from 30 outings (10W 12D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
MVV are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.54 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Roda in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 22W 16D 23L in their last 61 games (1.34 PPG), while Roda have gone 29W 18D 14L in their last 61 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Roda away?
MVV's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.60 PPG; Roda away: 1.40 PPG.
Have MVV or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
MVV have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Roda in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 0-3 on 17 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, MVV have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
MVV
3
Draws
6
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, MVV have won 1, Roda have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when MVV 1-1 Roda.
Who has won more matches between MVV and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 57%, Roda 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (MVV) and 47% (Roda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of MVV's games and 63% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of MVV's matches and 47% of Roda's.
Do MVV and Roda tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Roda in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as MVV edge out Roda 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV beat Roda 3-2 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 2.15 xG and Roda 1.23 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. MVV beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.33 / defence 0.89 against Roda attack 1.07 / defence 0.99, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 58% | Draw 21% | Roda 21%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 66%, Roda 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 1.34 PPG, Roda 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the MVV win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. Roda (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.