MVV 0-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates MVV at 39%, yet in-form Cambuur provide a compelling counter-argument — this MVV vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Geusselt plays host to MVV versus Cambuur in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Friday 12 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
MVV (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. MVV have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
MVV's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at De Geusselt this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — MVV are significantly better at De Geusselt than their overall form suggests.
Cambuur's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Cambuur have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Cambuur are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Cambuur, who have claimed 3 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Cambuur winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Cambuur have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
MVV half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 45% versus Cambuur 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 52% | Cambuur 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.24 xG and Cambuur 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 0.930 / defence 0.957 | Cambuur attack 0.953 / defence 0.804. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.221. Data: 42 MVV games / 43 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 39% | Draw 28% | Cambuur 33%. Fair-value odds: MVV 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Cambuur 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is MVV at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cambuur (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on MVV if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: MVV 40% | Cambuur 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Friday 12 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 39% | Draw 28% | Cambuur 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG MVV 1.24 / Cambuur 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 0.930 / def 0.957 | Cambuur attack 0.953 / def 0.804 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: MVV (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Cambuur xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Cambuur kick off?
MVV vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 September 2025 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Cambuur?
MVV 0 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is MVV vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Cambuur part of?
MVV vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 39% chance of winning, Cambuur a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both MVV and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Cambuur?
Record (4 meetings): MVV 0W | Draws 1 | Cambuur 3W.
What form are MVV and Cambuur in?
MVV (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Cambuur (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates MVV's attack at 0.93x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (0.95x) against MVV's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
39%
2.56
28%
3.58
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
MVV xG
Total xG
2.35
1.11
Cambuur xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
10%
10.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are MVV and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for MVV and 1.11 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, MVV have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 11W 11D 20L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for MVV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cambuur's form line: 24W 7D 11L from 42 games, 1.88 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Cambuur are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against MVV.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, MVV have posted 1.55 PPG from 20 outings (9W 4D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — MVV are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cambuur have gone 11W 3D 6L from 20 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
MVV are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.67 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Cambuur in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Early Season
Cambuur
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Cambuur in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 11W 11D 20L in their last 42 games (1.05 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 24W 7D 11L in their last 42 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.55 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.80 PPG.
Have MVV or Cambuur been keeping clean sheets recently?
MVV have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Cambuur in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cambuur go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 4-0 on 19 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, MVV have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
MVV
1
Draws
5
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, MVV have won 0, Cambuur have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 19 December 2025, when Cambuur 4-0 MVV.
Who has won more matches between MVV and Cambuur?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 55%, Cambuur 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (MVV) and 45% (Cambuur). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of MVV's recent matches and 40% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is MVV vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of MVV's matches and 45% of Cambuur's.
Do MVV and Cambuur tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cambuur defy the odds to beat MVV 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat MVV 0-1 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.24 xG and Cambuur 1.11 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. MVV fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.93 / defence 0.96 against Cambuur attack 0.95 / defence 0.80, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 39% | Draw 28% | Cambuur 33%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Cambuur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 52%, Cambuur 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cambuur's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.