Jong PSV U21 2-3 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong PSV U21 vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong PSV U21 host Roda at PSV Campus De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 9 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong PSV U21 — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21 at PSV Campus De Herdgang this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Jong PSV U21 are significantly better at PSV Campus De Herdgang than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Roda — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Jong PSV U21, 2 for Roda and 3 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2024, ended 2–3 with Roda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Roda in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 66% and Roda 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 74% | Roda 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.56 xG and Roda 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.972 / defence 1.445 | Roda attack 0.905 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.392. Data: 55 Jong PSV U21 games / 55 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 32% | Draw 25% | Roda 43%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Roda 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 80% | Roda 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 9 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 32% | Draw 25% | Roda 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.56 / Roda 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.972 / def 1.445 | Roda attack 0.905 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Roda (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Roda xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Roda kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 9 December 2024 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Roda?
Jong PSV U21 2 - 3 Roda.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Roda part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Roda is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 32% chance of winning, Roda a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Roda?
Record (6 meetings): Jong PSV U21 1W | Draws 3 | Roda 2W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Roda in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Roda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (0.97) and Roda's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
32%
3.13
25%
3.99
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.38
1.82
Roda xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
16%
6.18
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
5%
19.32
9%
11.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.82 for Roda, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong PSV U21 come into this having played 55 games, going 16W 9D 30L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.75 PPG from 55 outings (26W 18D 11L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Jong PSV U21's home form reads 7W 6D 14L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.33 points per game from 27 outings (8W 12D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Roda's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.55 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Roda in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 16W 9D 30L in their last 55 games (1.04 PPG), while Roda have gone 26W 18D 11L in their last 55 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.00 PPG; Roda away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Jong PSV U21 or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong PSV U21 have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Roda in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2023, when Jong PSV U21 won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting Roda specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong PSV U21
3
Draws
5
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 2, Roda have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Roda 0-2 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong PSV U21 at 74%, Roda at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Jong PSV U21 and 44% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Jong PSV U21's games and 63% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 44% of Roda's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Roda tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Roda in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Roda edge out Jong PSV U21 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Jong PSV U21 2-3 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.56 xG and Roda 1.82 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Roda outscored their 1.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 0.97 / defence 1.45 against Roda attack 0.91 / defence 1.04, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 32% | Draw 25% | Roda 43%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 74%, Roda 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.