Jong PSV U21 1-1 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong PSV U21 host Jong AZ at De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 14 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong PSV U21 — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jong PSV U21 have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at De Herdgang, Jong PSV U21 have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong AZ away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong PSV U21 at 1.40 PPG versus Jong AZ's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong PSV U21 register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Jong AZ in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Jong PSV U21 have won 4, Jong AZ 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Jong PSV U21 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 64% and Jong AZ 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 67% | Jong AZ 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 2.15 xG and Jong AZ 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.946 / defence 0.846 | Jong AZ attack 1.424 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.865 / away 1.699. Jong AZ bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing Jong PSV U21's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Jong AZ have an above-average attack strength of 1.424 — the away xG of 2.05 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Jong PSV U21 games / 45 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 42% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 38%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.38 | Draw 5.00 | Jong AZ 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 20% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.20. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.20 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 2.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong PSV U21 are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 77%. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 60% | Jong AZ 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 14 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 42% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 77% | xG Jong PSV U21 2.15 / Jong AZ 2.05 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.946 / def 0.846 | Jong AZ attack 1.424 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.865 / away 1.699 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
2.05
Jong AZ xG
77%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 14 September 2026 at De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ?
Jong PSV U21 1 - 1 Jong AZ.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 42% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 38% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ?
Record (9 meetings): Jong PSV U21 4W | Draws 2 | Jong AZ 3W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jong PSV U21's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Jong AZ's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 2.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 7.5%. Close behind: 2-2 (7.3%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
42%
2.39
20%
4.96
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
1 – 2
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
4.20
2.05
Jong AZ xG
2.39
42%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.30
23%
BTTS No
4.33
Clean Sheet
13%
7.74
12%
8.58
Win to Nil
5%
18.48
4%
22.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.5%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 2.05 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 4.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong PSV U21's recent record stands at 20W 7D 18L from 45 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 15W 4D 26L across 45 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong PSV U21 on 1.49 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jong PSV U21 have managed 12W 4D 7L from 23 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 10W 2D 11L across 23 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.73 scored and 2.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Jong AZ in 62%.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Early Season
Jong AZ
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 20W 7D 18L in their last 45 games (1.49 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 15W 4D 26L in their last 45 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Jong AZ away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.74 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 14 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Mar 2024, when Jong AZ won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong PSV U21
3
Draws
3
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 4, Jong AZ have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2026, when Jong PSV U21 1-1 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ?
Jong PSV U21 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong PSV U21 at 56%, Jong AZ at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Jong PSV U21 and 83% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 70% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Jong PSV U21's games and 74% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 83% of Jong AZ's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at De Herdgang, Regular Season - 9, as Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 2.15 xG and Jong AZ 2.05 xG, a combined 4.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Jong AZ landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 0.95 / defence 0.85 against Jong AZ attack 1.42 / defence 1.22, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 42% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 38%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 67%, Jong AZ 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.49 PPG, Jong AZ 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.