Jong AZ vs NAC Breda – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates NAC Breda at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong AZ vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 19 as Jong AZ welcome NAC Breda to AFAS Trainingscomplex. Kick-off is set for Friday 11 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong AZ — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ's home record at AFAS Trainingscomplex: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, NAC Breda have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong AZ at 1.40 PPG versus NAC Breda's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
NAC Breda have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against Jong AZ's 1 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2024, ended 2–3 with NAC Breda winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. NAC Breda have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 64% versus NAC Breda 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 71% | NAC Breda 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.43 xG and NAC Breda 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.800 / defence 1.012 | NAC Breda attack 1.144 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Data: 49 Jong AZ games / 11 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 33% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 44%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 3.03 | Draw 4.17 | NAC Breda 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, NAC Breda are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 50% | NAC Breda 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Friday 11 Dec 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 33% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Jong AZ 1.43 / NAC Breda 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.800 / def 1.012 | NAC Breda attack 1.144 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.69
NAC Breda xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs NAC Breda kick off?
Jong AZ vs NAC Breda is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 11 December 2026 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
Where is Jong AZ vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs NAC Breda part of?
Jong AZ vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 33% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Jong AZ and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and NAC Breda?
Record (6 meetings): Jong AZ 1W | Draws 0 | NAC Breda 5W.
What form are Jong AZ and NAC Breda in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 0.80x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
33%
3.06
24%
4.25
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.12
1.69
NAC Breda xG
3.06
33%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
18%
5.43
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
6%
16.63
10%
9.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.7 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.69 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Jong AZ have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 16W 6D 23L record — L-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda's form line: 12W 13D 20L from 45 games, 1.09 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.20 PPG, NAC Breda on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jong AZ have posted 0.91 PPG from 22 outings (6W 2D 14L).
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 4W 8D 10L from 22 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.27 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 16W 6D 23L in their last 45 games (1.20 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 12W 13D 20L in their last 45 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or NAC Breda away?
Jong AZ's home record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 0.91 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong AZ and NAC Breda runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: NAC Breda have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2022, when Jong AZ won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Jong AZ
0
Draws
5
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 1, NAC Breda have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2024, when Jong AZ 2-3 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 50%, NAC Breda 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Jong AZ and 68% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 32% of games; NAC Breda in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 59% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Jong AZ's matches and 68% of NAC Breda's.
Do Jong AZ and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.