Jong Ajax 0-1 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Jong Ajax take on VVV Venlo.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Ajax host VVV Venlo at Sportpark De Toekomst in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 1 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong Ajax — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Ajax's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Sportpark De Toekomst this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VVV Venlo stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VVV Venlo's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong Ajax at 1.00 PPG versus VVV Venlo's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Jong Ajax: 4 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for VVV Venlo, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2024, ended 0–2 with VVV Venlo winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Jong Ajax and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Jong Ajax trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
VVV Venlo trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Ajax 60% versus VVV Venlo 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 62% | VVV Venlo 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.01 xG and VVV Venlo 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 0.566 / defence 0.788 | VVV Venlo attack 0.815 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.465. Jong Ajax's attack strength of 0.566 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. VVV Venlo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Jong Ajax's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Jong Ajax's defence rating of 0.788 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Jong Ajax games / 50 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 34% | Draw 35% | VVV Venlo 31%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 2.94 | Draw 2.86 | VVV Venlo 3.23. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 50% | VVV Venlo 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Friday 1 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 34% | Draw 35% | VVV Venlo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Jong Ajax 1.01 / VVV Venlo 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 0.566 / def 0.788 | VVV Venlo attack 0.815 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.465 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
0.94
VVV Venlo xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 November 2024 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo?
Jong Ajax 0 - 1 VVV Venlo.
Where is Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo part of?
Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 34% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 31% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Jong Ajax and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and VVV Venlo?
Record (6 meetings): Jong Ajax 4W | Draws 1 | VVV Venlo 1W.
What form are Jong Ajax and VVV Venlo in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. VVV Venlo (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jong Ajax's attacking strength (0.57x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus Jong Ajax's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.90
35%
2.88
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
1.95
0.94
VVV Venlo xG
2.90
34%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
11%
8.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 0.94 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong Ajax's recent record stands at 12W 16D 22L from 50 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VVV Venlo, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 24L across 50 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Ajax on 1.04 PPG, VVV Venlo on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jong Ajax have managed 8W 8D 8L from 24 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VVV Venlo's away record stands at 4W 7D 13L across 24 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Ajax are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.30 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 12W 16D 22L in their last 50 games (1.04 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 15W 11D 24L in their last 50 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or VVV Venlo away?
Jong Ajax's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.33 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2022, when Jong Ajax won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Ajax's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jong Ajax
1
Draws
4
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and VVV Venlo?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 5, VVV Venlo have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when VVV Venlo 0-1 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and VVV Venlo?
Jong Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Ajax 42%, VVV Venlo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Jong Ajax) and 58% (VVV Venlo).
On the defensive side: Jong Ajax keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Jong Ajax have failed to score in 38% of games; VVV Venlo in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play VVV Venlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Jong Ajax's recent matches and 50% of VVV Venlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Jong Ajax's recent games and 58% of VVV Venlo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Ajax and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VVV Venlo defy the odds to beat Jong Ajax 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo beat Jong Ajax 0-1 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.01 xG and VVV Venlo 0.94 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jong Ajax fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.57 / defence 0.79 against VVV Venlo attack 0.81 / defence 1.20, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 34% | Draw 35% | VVV Venlo 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual VVV Venlo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 62%, VVV Venlo 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 1.04 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VVV Venlo win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.