Jong Ajax 0-2 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 37%, yet in-form FC Volendam provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong Ajax vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Ajax host FC Volendam at Sportpark De Toekomst in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 31 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Ajax stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong Ajax have posted 5W 2D 3L at Sportpark De Toekomst — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Jong Ajax are significantly better at Sportpark De Toekomst than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Volendam have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Volendam's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Volendam are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Jong Ajax have won 0, FC Volendam 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2024, ended 0–3 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jong Ajax trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
FC Volendam trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Ajax 52% versus FC Volendam 65%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong Ajax 58% | FC Volendam 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.38 xG and FC Volendam 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 0.891 / defence 0.903 | FC Volendam attack 1.177 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.294. Data: 69 Jong Ajax games / 31 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 37% | Draw 26% | FC Volendam 37%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | FC Volendam 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Jong Ajax 30% | FC Volendam 70%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 31 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 37% | Draw 26% | FC Volendam 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Jong Ajax 1.38 / FC Volendam 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 0.891 / def 0.903 | FC Volendam attack 1.177 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.38
FC Volendam xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs FC Volendam kick off?
Jong Ajax vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 31 March 2025 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs FC Volendam?
Jong Ajax 0 - 2 FC Volendam.
Where is Jong Ajax vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs FC Volendam part of?
Jong Ajax vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 37% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Jong Ajax and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and FC Volendam?
Record (3 meetings): Jong Ajax 0W | Draws 1 | FC Volendam 2W.
What form are Jong Ajax and FC Volendam in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jong Ajax's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Jong Ajax's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
37%
2.67
26%
3.92
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
2.76
1.38
FC Volendam xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
9%
10.59
9%
10.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.38 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Jong Ajax have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 18W 17D 30L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
FC Volendam's form line: 25W 11D 29L from 65 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Ajax on 1.09 PPG, FC Volendam on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jong Ajax have posted 1.47 PPG from 32 outings (13W 8D 11L).
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 9W 9D 14L from 32 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Ajax are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.63 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 65%.
Last 65 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Current Season
FC Volendam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 18W 17D 30L in their last 65 games (1.09 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 25W 11D 29L in their last 65 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or FC Volendam away?
Jong Ajax's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.47 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
FC Volendam go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2024, when FC Volendam won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Ajax's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Jong Ajax
1
Draws
3
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 0, FC Volendam have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2025, when Jong Ajax 0-2 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Ajax 38%, FC Volendam 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Jong Ajax) and 72% (FC Volendam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Ajax keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Jong Ajax have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Jong Ajax's games and 78% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Ajax vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Jong Ajax's matches and 72% of FC Volendam's.
Do Jong Ajax and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Volendam cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Jong Ajax.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Jong Ajax 0-2 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.38 xG and FC Volendam 1.38 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Jong Ajax fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.89 / defence 0.90 against FC Volendam attack 1.18 / defence 0.95, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 37% | Draw 26% | FC Volendam 37%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual FC Volendam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 58%, FC Volendam 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Volendam's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 1.09 PPG, FC Volendam 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.