FC Eindhoven 1-0 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Eindhoven and Heracles meet at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 January 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
FC Eindhoven (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven at Jan Louwers Stadion this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Heracles's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for FC Eindhoven against 1.90 for Heracles. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Eindhoven have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Heracles in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Eindhoven lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2022, ended 0–3 with Heracles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
FC Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Heracles goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 57% versus Heracles 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 54% | Heracles 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.99 xG and Heracles 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.257 / defence 0.961 | Heracles attack 1.164 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.344. FC Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — their λ of 1.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 FC Eindhoven games / 20 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 49% | Draw 22% | Heracles 29%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.04 | Draw 4.55 | Heracles 3.45. FC Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.50 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 60% | Heracles 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Heracles | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 27 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 49% | Draw 22% | Heracles 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.99 / Heracles 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.257 / def 0.961 | Heracles attack 1.164 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Heracles xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Heracles kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Heracles kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 January 2023 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Heracles?
FC Eindhoven 1 - 0 Heracles.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Heracles part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 49% chance of winning, Heracles a 29% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Heracles?
Record (1 meetings): FC Eindhoven 0W | Draws 0 | Heracles 1W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Heracles in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Heracles (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Eindhoven's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Heracles's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. Flip it around — Heracles's attack (1.16x) against FC Eindhoven's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 58/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
49%
2.04
22%
4.62
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.50
1.50
Heracles xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
14%
7.34
Win to Nil
11%
9.15
4%
25.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.50 for Heracles, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Eindhoven come into this having played 56 games, going 29W 14D 13L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Heracles sit at 1.39 PPG from 56 outings (23W 9D 24L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Heracles — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Eindhoven's home form reads 17W 6D 5L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Heracles have taken 0.96 points per game from 28 outings (8W 3D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heracles's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.61 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Heracles in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 29W 14D 13L in their last 56 games (1.80 PPG), while Heracles have gone 23W 9D 24L in their last 56 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Heracles away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 2.04 PPG; Heracles away: 0.96 PPG.
Have FC Eindhoven or Heracles been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Heracles in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
FC Eindhoven
0
Draws
1
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Heracles?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 1, Heracles have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2023, when FC Eindhoven 1-0 Heracles.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 64%, Heracles 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for FC Eindhoven and 61% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Heracles in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Heracles?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of FC Eindhoven's games and 46% of Heracles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 61% of Heracles's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Heracles tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Heracles in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Eindhoven edge out Heracles 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Heracles 1-0 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.99 xG and Heracles 1.50 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Eindhoven fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Heracles landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.26 / defence 0.96 against Heracles attack 1.16 / defence 1.02, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 49% | Draw 22% | Heracles 29%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 54%, Heracles 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Heracles's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.