FC Eindhoven 0-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Eindhoven at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
FC OSS travel to Jan Louwers Stadion to take on FC Eindhoven in Eerste Divisie (matchday 15). The game is scheduled for Monday 27 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, FC Eindhoven have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, FC Eindhoven have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC OSS stand at 1W 0D 9L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
FC OSS away from home: 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
FC Eindhoven are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for FC Eindhoven, 1 for FC OSS and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Feb 2023, ended FC Eindhoven 0–2 FC OSS — a FC OSS win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC Eindhoven in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
FC OSS in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 55% versus FC OSS 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 43% | FC OSS 58%). Note also that FC OSS surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while FC Eindhoven recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.33 xG and FC OSS 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.841 / defence 0.937 | FC OSS attack 0.598 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.387. FC OSS's attack rating of 0.598 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Data: built from FC Eindhoven's last 53 games and FC OSS's last 53.
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 49% | Draw 30% | FC OSS 21%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.04 | Draw 3.36 | FC OSS 4.72. FC Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (FC Eindhoven's last 10 home games and FC OSS's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FC Eindhoven 50% (last 10 home games) | FC OSS 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 15 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 27 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 49% | Draw 30% | FC OSS 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG FC Eindhoven 1.33 / FC OSS 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.841 / def 0.937 | FC OSS attack 0.598 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
0.78
FC OSS xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS FAQs
What time does FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 27 November 2023 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS?
FC Eindhoven 0 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS part of?
FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 15) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 49% chance of winning, FC OSS a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both FC Eindhoven and FC OSS will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Eindhoven's attack rating (0.84) and FC OSS's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Eindhoven's last 53 games and FC OSS's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
49%
2.04
30%
3.36
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.10
0.78
FC OSS xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
6%
17.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.6 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 0.78 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, FC Eindhoven have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 20W 16D 17L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
FC OSS's form line: 12W 8D 33L from 53 games, 0.83 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, FC Eindhoven are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC OSS.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Eindhoven have posted 1.58 PPG from their last 26 home games (11W 8D 7L).
On the road, FC OSS have gone 4W 5D 17L from their last 26 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.04 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
FC Eindhoven (Home) vs FC OSS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Eindhoven
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS Form FAQs
What form are FC Eindhoven and FC OSS in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 20W 16D 17L in their last 53 games (1.43 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 12W 8D 33L in their last 53 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or FC OSS away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.58 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 20 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC OSS have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Sep 2024, when FC Eindhoven won FC OSS 0-4 FC Eindhoven.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Eindhoven
1
Draws
4
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and FC OSS?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Eindhoven have won 5, FC OSS have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and FC OSS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 March 2026: FC OSS 2-1 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and FC OSS?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 54%, FC OSS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (FC Eindhoven) and 54% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Eindhoven and FC OSS matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of FC Eindhoven's recent matches and 50% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Eindhoven and FC OSS matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of FC Eindhoven's recent games and 54% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Eindhoven and FC OSS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of FC Eindhoven's recent matches and 77% of FC OSS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Eindhoven's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven and FC OSS finished level at 0-0 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.33 xG and FC OSS 0.78 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Eindhoven fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.84 / defence 0.94 against FC OSS attack 0.60 / defence 1.03, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 49% | Draw 30% | FC OSS 21%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 43%, FC OSS 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
FC OSS's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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