Den Bosch 1-4 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs Telstar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Den Bosch and Telstar meet at Stadion De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 November 2023 at 17:45 UTC.
Current Form
Den Bosch's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion De Vliert, Den Bosch have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Telstar have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Telstar have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.00 for Telstar. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Den Bosch lead 1W to 3W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Telstar winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Telstar — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 56% versus Telstar 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 67% | Telstar 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.48 xG and Telstar 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.830 / defence 1.088 | Telstar attack 0.637 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.328. Data: 52 Den Bosch games / 52 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 49% | Draw 29% | Telstar 22%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Telstar 4.55. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Den Bosch are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Den Bosch 70% | Telstar 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 17 Nov 2023, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 49% | Draw 29% | Telstar 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Den Bosch 1.48 / Telstar 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.830 / def 1.088 | Telstar attack 0.637 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Telstar xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Telstar kick off?
Den Bosch vs Telstar kicked off at 17:45 on Friday 17 November 2023 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Telstar?
Den Bosch 1 - 4 Telstar.
Where is Den Bosch vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Telstar part of?
Den Bosch vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 49% chance of winning, Telstar a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Den Bosch and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Telstar?
Record (4 meetings): Den Bosch 1W | Draws 0 | Telstar 3W.
What form are Den Bosch and Telstar in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Telstar (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Den Bosch's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Telstar's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Telstar's attack (0.64x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
49%
2.06
29%
3.40
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.40
0.92
Telstar xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
5%
19.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.4 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Den Bosch and 0.92 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Telstar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Den Bosch come into this having played 52 games, going 13W 6D 33L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Telstar sit at 1.21 PPG from 52 outings (17W 12D 23L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.87 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.21 for Telstar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Den Bosch's home form reads 9W 4D 13L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Telstar have taken 0.96 points per game from 26 outings (6W 7D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.00 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Telstar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Telstar in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 13W 6D 33L in their last 52 games (0.87 PPG), while Telstar have gone 17W 12D 23L in their last 52 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Telstar away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.19 PPG; Telstar away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Telstar won 1-4 on 17 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Telstar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Den Bosch
3
Draws
6
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Telstar?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 1, Telstar have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2025, when Telstar 2-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Telstar?
Telstar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 65%, Telstar 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Den Bosch) and 42% (Telstar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Telstar in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Telstar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Den Bosch's games and 46% of Telstar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Den Bosch's matches and 42% of Telstar's.
Do Den Bosch and Telstar tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Telstar in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Telstar run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Telstar beat Den Bosch 1-4 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.48 xG and Telstar 0.92 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Telstar outscored their 0.92 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.83 / defence 1.09 against Telstar attack 0.64 / defence 1.14, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 49% | Draw 29% | Telstar 22%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Telstar win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 67%, Telstar 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Telstar's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 0.87 PPG, Telstar 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Telstar win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.