Emmen 1-1 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Emmen and Excelsior meet at De Oude Meerdijk in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 December 2024 at 15:45 UTC.
Form
Emmen (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at De Oude Meerdijk, Emmen have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at De Oude Meerdijk this season.
Excelsior's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Excelsior have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for Emmen against 2.20 for Excelsior. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Emmen lead 2W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2023, ended 2–0 with Emmen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Emmen — key trading statistics (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Excelsior — key trading statistics (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 53% versus Excelsior 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Emmen 60% | Excelsior 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.34 xG and Excelsior 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.076 / defence 0.967 | Excelsior attack 0.993 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.395. Data: 55 Emmen games / 17 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 36% | Draw 29% | Excelsior 36%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Excelsior 2.78. The draw (29%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 29% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Emmen 50% | Excelsior 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Excelsior | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 36% | Draw 29% | Excelsior 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Emmen 1.34 / Excelsior 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.076 / def 0.967 | Excelsior attack 0.993 / def 0.808 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: Draw (29%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Excelsior xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Excelsior kick off?
Emmen vs Excelsior kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Excelsior?
Emmen 1 - 1 Excelsior.
Where is Emmen vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Excelsior part of?
Emmen vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 36% chance of winning, Excelsior a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Emmen and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Excelsior?
Record (4 meetings): Emmen 2W | Draws 0 | Excelsior 2W.
What form are Emmen and Excelsior in?
Emmen (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Excelsior (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Emmen's attack rating (1.08) and Excelsior's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Excelsior's attack (0.99x) against Emmen's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 55/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
36%
2.80
29%
3.48
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.68
1.34
Excelsior xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
9%
10.69
9%
10.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Emmen and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Emmen and 1.34 for Excelsior, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Emmen's recent record stands at 26W 9D 20L from 55 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Excelsior, meanwhile, have gone 20W 14D 21L across 55 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Emmen against 1.35 for Excelsior. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Emmen have managed 13W 5D 10L from 28 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Excelsior's away record stands at 7W 7D 14L across 28 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Emmen are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.85 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior in 62%.
Last 55 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Excelsior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 26W 9D 20L in their last 55 games (1.58 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 20W 14D 21L in their last 55 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Excelsior away?
Emmen's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.57 PPG; Excelsior away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Excelsior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Emmen
1
Draws
3
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Excelsior?
From 6 meetings on record, Emmen have won 2, Excelsior have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Excelsior 2-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Excelsior?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 46%, Excelsior 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Emmen and 86% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 61% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Emmen's games and 64% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Emmen's matches and 86% of Excelsior's.
Do Emmen and Excelsior tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen and Excelsior share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 18, as Emmen and Excelsior drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.34 xG and Excelsior 1.34 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.08 / defence 0.97 against Excelsior attack 0.99 / defence 0.81, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 36% | Draw 29% | Excelsior 36%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 60%, Excelsior 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.58 PPG, Excelsior 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Excelsior (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.