Emmen 3-1 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Den Bosch travel to De Oude Meerdijk to take on Emmen. The game is scheduled for Friday 29 August 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Emmen at De Oude Meerdijk this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Den Bosch away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Den Bosch's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Emmen's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Emmen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Den Bosch in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Emmen, 2 for Den Bosch and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2024, ended 0–3 with Den Bosch winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Den Bosch trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 49% versus Den Bosch 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 61% | Den Bosch 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.59 xG and Den Bosch 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.924 / defence 1.307 | Den Bosch attack 0.940 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.681 / away 1.269. Data: 41 Emmen games / 40 Den Bosch games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Emmen 39% | Draw 24% | Den Bosch 37%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Den Bosch 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Emmen dominate the H2H record, yet Den Bosch are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Den Bosch (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 60% | Den Bosch 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 29 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 39% | Draw 24% | Den Bosch 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Emmen 1.59 / Den Bosch 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.924 / def 1.307 | Den Bosch attack 0.940 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.681 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Emmen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Den Bosch xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Den Bosch kick off?
Emmen vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 August 2025 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Den Bosch?
Emmen 3 - 1 Den Bosch.
Where is Emmen vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Den Bosch part of?
Emmen vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 39% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Emmen and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Den Bosch?
Record (6 meetings): Emmen 4W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 2W.
What form are Emmen and Den Bosch in?
Emmen (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Emmen's attack at 0.92x the league average against Den Bosch's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (41/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
39%
2.57
24%
4.23
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.15
1.56
Den Bosch xG
2.57
39%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
8%
12.23
8%
13.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.6 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Emmen and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Emmen and 1.56 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Emmen come into this having played 41 games, going 17W 5D 19L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Den Bosch sit at 1.51 PPG from 41 outings (17W 11D 13L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Emmen on 1.37 PPG, Den Bosch on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Emmen's home form reads 7W 4D 9L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Den Bosch have taken 1.15 points per game from 20 outings (6W 5D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Emmen are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.37 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Den Bosch in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Early Season
Den Bosch
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 17W 5D 19L in their last 41 games (1.37 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 17W 11D 13L in their last 41 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Den Bosch away?
Emmen's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.25 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Emmen or Den Bosch been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Den Bosch in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Emmen and Den Bosch runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2024, when Den Bosch won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Emmen
1
Draws
2
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Den Bosch?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 5, Den Bosch have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Den Bosch?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 60%, Den Bosch 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Emmen and 65% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Emmen's games and 50% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Emmen's matches and 65% of Den Bosch's.
Do Emmen and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Den Bosch 3-1 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.59 xG and Den Bosch 1.56 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Emmen beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.92 / defence 1.31 against Den Bosch attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 41/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 39% | Draw 24% | Den Bosch 37%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 61%, Den Bosch 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.37 PPG, Den Bosch 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.