Dordrecht 1-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Dordrecht at 35% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs Willem II encounter.

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Analysis

Willem II make the trip to M-Scores Stadion to face Dordrecht in Eerste Divisie (matchday 37). The match kicks off on Friday 3 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Form

Dordrecht (all games): 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Dordrecht have gone 8W 2D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Willem II's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Willem II have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form ledger tips toward Dordrecht. A 0.60 PPG lead over Willem II (2.40 vs 1.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Dordrecht, 2 for Willem II and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2023, ended Dordrecht 0–2 Willem II — a Willem II win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Dordrecht half-time and goal-timing data (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 31 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

Willem II half-time and goal-timing data (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 58% and Willem II 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 61% | Willem II 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Dordrecht surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Willem II have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.22 xG and Willem II 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.091 / defence 0.753 | Willem II attack 1.151 / defence 0.678. League average goals — home 1.643 / away 1.373. Willem II bring a tight defence (rating 0.678, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Dordrecht's projected output down. Dordrecht have a tight defence (rating 0.753), which is pulling Willem II's projected output down. Data: built from Dordrecht's last 74 games and Willem II's last 74.

Result probabilities: Dordrecht 35% | Draw 31% | Willem II 34%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.84 | Draw 3.24 | Willem II 2.95. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 35% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dordrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Dordrecht 40% (last 10 home games) | Willem II 60% (last 10 away games).

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