Jong PSV U21 4-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong PSV U21 and FC OSS meet at PSV Campus De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Friday 3 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jong PSV U21 have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jong PSV U21's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at PSV Campus De Herdgang this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC OSS's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC OSS away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to FC OSS, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2023, ended 1–4 with FC OSS winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC OSS have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Jong PSV U21 half-time and goal-timing data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
FC OSS half-time and goal-timing data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong PSV U21 66% versus FC OSS 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 70% | FC OSS 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.69 xG and FC OSS 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.032 / defence 1.112 | FC OSS attack 0.756 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.643 / away 1.373. Data: 74 Jong PSV U21 games / 74 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 49% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 25%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | FC OSS 4.00. Jong PSV U21 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong PSV U21 at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Jong PSV U21 60% | FC OSS 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 49% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.69 / FC OSS 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.032 / def 1.112 | FC OSS attack 0.756 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.643 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.15
FC OSS xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 May 2024 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS?
Jong PSV U21 4 - 1 FC OSS.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 49% chance of winning, FC OSS a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and FC OSS?
Record (5 meetings): Jong PSV U21 0W | Draws 1 | FC OSS 4W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and FC OSS in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. FC OSS (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jong PSV U21's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against FC OSS's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.76x) against Jong PSV U21's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
49%
2.06
27%
3.72
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
2.84
1.15
FC OSS xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
18%
5.43
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
5%
22.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.3 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.15 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong PSV U21 come into this having played 74 games, going 21W 16D 37L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, FC OSS sit at 0.95 PPG from 74 outings (20W 10D 44L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Jong PSV U21 against 0.95 for FC OSS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Jong PSV U21's home form reads 13W 7D 17L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, FC OSS have taken 0.73 points per game from 37 outings (7W 6D 24L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong PSV U21 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.01 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 74 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
FC OSS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 21W 16D 37L in their last 74 games (1.07 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 20W 10D 44L in their last 74 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or FC OSS away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.24 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC OSS won 0-3 on 5 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong PSV U21 have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC OSS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong PSV U21
3
Draws
4
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, FC OSS have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Jong PSV U21 2-0 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and FC OSS?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 65%, FC OSS 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Jong PSV U21 and 54% for FC OSS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Jong PSV U21's recent matches and 43% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 54% of FC OSS's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and FC OSS tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong PSV U21 run riot with a 4-1 hammering of FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat FC OSS 4-1 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.69 xG and FC OSS 1.15 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.03 / defence 1.11 against FC OSS attack 0.76 / defence 1.00, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 49% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 25%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 70%, FC OSS 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
FC OSS's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.07 PPG, FC OSS 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm. FC OSS (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.