Dordrecht vs FC Volendam – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 49%, yet in-form FC Volendam provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dordrecht vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 32 as Dordrecht welcome FC Volendam to M-Scores Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 2 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Dordrecht have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's home record at M-Scores Stadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Volendam — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. FC Volendam's 1.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Dordrecht's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dordrecht register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC Volendam in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Dordrecht, 3 for FC Volendam and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2026, ended 1–6 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dordrecht trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
FC Volendam trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 66% and FC Volendam 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 62% | FC Volendam 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 2.08 xG and FC Volendam 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.879 / defence 1.313 | FC Volendam attack 0.824 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 1.840 / away 1.459. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.286 — this is suppressing Dordrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Dordrecht games / 11 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 49% | Draw 21% | FC Volendam 29%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.04 | Draw 4.76 | FC Volendam 3.45. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dordrecht as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Volendam (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.66 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 60% | FC Volendam 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 2 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 49% | Draw 21% | FC Volendam 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 69% | xG Dordrecht 2.08 / FC Volendam 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.879 / def 1.313 | FC Volendam attack 0.824 / def 1.286 | league avg home 1.840 / away 1.459 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.58
FC Volendam xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs FC Volendam kick off?
Dordrecht vs FC Volendam is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 2 April 2027 at M-Scores Stadion.
Where is Dordrecht vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs FC Volendam part of?
Dordrecht vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 49% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 29% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Dordrecht and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and FC Volendam?
Record (5 meetings): Dordrecht 2W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 3W.
What form are Dordrecht and FC Volendam in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dordrecht's attack at 0.88x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
49%
2.02
21%
4.73
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.66
1.58
FC Volendam xG
2.02
49%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.27
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
13%
8.00
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
4%
27.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.58 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 13W 13D 21L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam's form line: 14W 9D 24L from 47 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dordrecht on 1.11 PPG, FC Volendam on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 1.13 PPG from 23 outings (7W 5D 11L).
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 3W 3D 17L from 23 away games — 0.52 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Volendam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.30 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 13W 13D 21L in their last 47 games (1.11 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 14W 9D 24L in their last 47 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or FC Volendam away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.13 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Aug 2026, when FC Volendam won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Dordrecht
0
Draws
3
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and FC Volendam?
From 5 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 2, FC Volendam have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when FC Volendam 6-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 61%, FC Volendam 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Dordrecht) and 56% (FC Volendam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play FC Volendam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 48% of FC Volendam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Dordrecht's matches and 56% of FC Volendam's.
Do Dordrecht and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.