Den Bosch 1-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Den Bosch at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Roda travel to Stadion De Vliert to take on Den Bosch. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 November 2024, 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion De Vliert, Den Bosch have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion De Vliert this season.
Roda — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Roda have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Den Bosch are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Den Bosch register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Roda in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Den Bosch, 3 for Roda and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Den Bosch trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Roda trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 50% versus Roda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 58% | Roda 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 2.29 xG and Roda 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.331 / defence 0.833 | Roda attack 0.741 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.498. Den Bosch carry an above-average attack strength of 1.331 — their λ of 2.29 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 50 Den Bosch games / 50 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 67% | Draw 20% | Roda 13%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | Roda 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Den Bosch (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Den Bosch at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 60% | Roda 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 67% | Draw 20% | Roda 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 55% | xG Den Bosch 2.29 / Roda 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.331 / def 0.833 | Roda attack 0.741 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.498 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (67%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Roda xG
55%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Roda kick off?
Den Bosch vs Roda kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Roda?
Den Bosch 1 - 1 Roda.
Where is Den Bosch vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Roda part of?
Den Bosch vs Roda is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 67% chance of winning, Roda a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Den Bosch and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Roda?
Record (6 meetings): Den Bosch 2W | Draws 1 | Roda 3W.
What form are Den Bosch and Roda in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Roda (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Den Bosch vs Roda?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Den Bosch's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Roda's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.29. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
67%
1.49
20%
5.01
13%
7.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.21
0.92
Roda xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.01
20%
Draw
7.76
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
10%
9.83
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
1%
76.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Den Bosch and 0.92 for Roda, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Roda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 15W 12D 23L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda's form line: 23W 16D 11L from 50 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Roda are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Den Bosch.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 1.16 PPG from 25 outings (7W 8D 10L).
On the road, Roda have gone 7W 11D 7L from 25 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Roda's season.
The Goals Picture
Den Bosch are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.52 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Roda in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 15W 12D 23L in their last 50 games (1.14 PPG), while Roda have gone 23W 16D 11L in their last 50 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.16 PPG; Roda away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Den Bosch or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Roda in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Den Bosch and Roda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Oct 2025, when Roda won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting Roda specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Den Bosch
4
Draws
4
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 2, Roda have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Den Bosch 2-2 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 60%, Roda 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Den Bosch) and 44% (Roda).
On the defensive side: Roda in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Den Bosch's games and 60% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Den Bosch's recent games and 44% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Den Bosch and Roda tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Roda in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Den Bosch and Roda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch and Roda finished level at 1-1 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 2.29 xG and Roda 0.92 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Den Bosch fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.33 / defence 0.83 against Roda attack 0.74 / defence 1.16, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 67% | Draw 20% | Roda 13%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 58%, Roda 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.