Den Bosch vs Jong AZ – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 43%, yet in-form Jong AZ provide a compelling counter-argument — this Den Bosch vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Jong AZ travel to De Vliert to take on Den Bosch. The game is scheduled for Friday 23 April 2027, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Den Bosch at De Vliert this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Den Bosch are significantly better at De Vliert than their overall form suggests.
Jong AZ — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Jong AZ are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Den Bosch register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Jong AZ in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Den Bosch, 2 for Jong AZ and 5 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Den Bosch trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Jong AZ trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Den Bosch 79% and Jong AZ 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Den Bosch 72% | Jong AZ 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 2.39 xG and Jong AZ 2.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.138 / defence 1.107 | Jong AZ attack 1.194 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 42 Den Bosch games / 43 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 43% | Draw 19% | Jong AZ 38%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.33 | Draw 5.26 | Jong AZ 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 19% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 84% | BTTS probability 81% | Total xG 4.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 84% — a total xG of 4.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 81% reflects that both xG figures (2.39 / 2.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jong AZ (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.64 combined xG gives a 84% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 81% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 90% | Jong AZ 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 23 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 43% | Draw 19% | Jong AZ 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 84% | BTTS 81% | xG Den Bosch 2.39 / Jong AZ 2.24 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.138 / def 1.107 | Jong AZ attack 1.194 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
2.24
Jong AZ xG
81%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Jong AZ kick off?
Den Bosch vs Jong AZ is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 23 April 2027 at De Vliert.
Where is Den Bosch vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Jong AZ part of?
Den Bosch vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 43% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 38% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 81% probability that both Den Bosch and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 84%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong AZ?
Record (10 meetings): Den Bosch 3W | Draws 5 | Jong AZ 2W.
What form are Den Bosch and Jong AZ in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Den Bosch's attack rating (1.14) and Jong AZ's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 2.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 2.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (6.2%), 1-1 (5.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 19% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
43%
2.32
19%
5.24
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
6.2%
Home win
1 – 2
5.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
4.64
2.24
Jong AZ xG
2.32
43%
Home win
5.24
19%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
95%
Over 1.5
1.05
5%
Under 1.5
20.00
84%
Over 2.5
1.19
16%
Under 2.5
6.25
68%
Over 3.5
1.47
32%
Under 3.5
3.12
49%
Over 4.5
2.04
51%
Under 4.5
1.96
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
81%
BTTS Yes
1.23
19%
BTTS No
5.33
Clean Sheet
11%
9.43
9%
10.95
Win to Nil
5%
21.86
3%
28.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 2.3 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.0%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Den Bosch and 2.24 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 4.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 14W 10D 19L from 43 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 14W 4D 25L across 43 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 1.21 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 7W 7D 7L from 21 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 9W 2D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Den Bosch are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.63 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Den Bosch have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games; Jong AZ in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Early Season
Jong AZ
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 14W 10D 19L in their last 43 games (1.21 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 14W 4D 25L in their last 43 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Jong AZ away?
Jong AZ's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.33 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Den Bosch and Jong AZ runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2024, when Den Bosch won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Den Bosch
5
Draws
2
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 3, Jong AZ have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Jong AZ 2-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Jong AZ?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Den Bosch at 81%, Jong AZ at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Den Bosch and 81% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of Den Bosch's games and 71% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Den Bosch's matches and 81% of Jong AZ's.
Do Den Bosch and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.