De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 meet at De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
De Graafschap have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 5W 1D 4L at De Vijverberg — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Jong PSV U21's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Jong PSV U21 in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Historically, De Graafschap have had the better of this match-up — 8 wins from 10 meetings, with Jong PSV U21 managing just 1 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with De Graafschap winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both De Graafschap and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Jong PSV U21 half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 76% and Jong PSV U21 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 71% | Jong PSV U21 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.91 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.894 / defence 1.145 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.952 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Data: 48 De Graafschap games / 48 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 46% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 32%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.17 | Draw 4.55 | Jong PSV U21 3.12. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.51 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 80% | Jong PSV U21 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 7 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 46% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG De Graafschap 1.91 / Jong PSV U21 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.894 / def 1.145 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.952 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Jong PSV U21 xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 7 May 2027 at De Vijverberg.
Where is De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 46% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 32% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21?
Record (10 meetings): De Graafschap 8W | Draws 1 | Jong PSV U21 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
De Graafschap's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Jong PSV U21's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. Flip it around — Jong PSV U21's attack (0.95x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
46%
2.19
22%
4.55
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.51
1.59
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
20%
4.92
15%
6.78
Win to Nil
9%
10.80
5%
20.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.59 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 20W 12D 17L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong PSV U21's form line: 20W 9D 20L from 49 games, 1.41 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.41 for Jong PSV U21. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 1.54 PPG from 24 outings (11W 4D 9L).
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 8W 4D 12L from 24 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.65 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; Jong PSV U21 in 65%.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 20W 12D 17L in their last 49 games (1.47 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 20W 9D 20L in their last 49 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.54 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
De Graafschap have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
De Graafschap
1
Draws
1
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 8, Jong PSV U21 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Jong PSV U21 1-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for De Graafschap, 75% for Jong PSV U21 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for De Graafschap and 71% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of De Graafschap's games and 75% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of De Graafschap's matches and 71% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.