De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong Ajax make the trip to De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Friday 26 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
De Graafschap (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at De Vijverberg, De Graafschap have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Jong Ajax's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.80. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Jong Ajax have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Ajax have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for De Graafschap, 0.70 for Jong Ajax — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Jong Ajax in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: De Graafschap 4W, Jong Ajax 4W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2026, ended 4–0 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Jong Ajax half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 74% and Jong Ajax 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 67% | Jong Ajax 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.05 xG and Jong Ajax 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.011 / defence 1.397 | Jong Ajax attack 0.865 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 42 De Graafschap games / 43 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 40% | Draw 20% | Jong Ajax 40%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.50 | Draw 5.00 | Jong Ajax 2.50. The draw (20%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.10. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.10 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 2.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 20% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 40% and away win at 40% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 4.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 76% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | Jong Ajax 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 40% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 26 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 40% | Draw 20% | Jong Ajax 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 76% | xG De Graafschap 2.05 / Jong Ajax 2.05 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.011 / def 1.397 | Jong Ajax attack 0.865 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Draw (20%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
2.05
Jong Ajax xG
76%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax kick off?
De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 26 February 2027 at De Vijverberg.
Where is De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax part of?
De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 40% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 40% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both De Graafschap and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong Ajax?
Record (10 meetings): De Graafschap 4W | Draws 2 | Jong Ajax 4W.
What form are De Graafschap and Jong Ajax in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Jong Ajax (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 1.01x the league average against Jong Ajax's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong Ajax's attack (0.86x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 2.05.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-2 (7.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
40%
2.52
20%
4.90
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
4.10
2.05
Jong Ajax xG
2.52
40%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.16
Clean Sheet
13%
7.79
13%
7.77
Win to Nil
5%
19.61
5%
19.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for De Graafschap and 2.05 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 4.10.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
De Graafschap come into this having played 43 games, going 17W 11D 15L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Jong Ajax sit at 0.91 PPG from 43 outings (10W 9D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong Ajax, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
De Graafschap's home form reads 9W 4D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Ajax have taken 0.76 points per game from 21 outings (4W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
De Graafschap are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 1.42 scored and 2.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Jong Ajax in 67%.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
Jong Ajax
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 17W 11D 15L in their last 43 games (1.44 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 10W 9D 24L in their last 43 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Jong Ajax away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.48 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong Ajax won 5-1 on 22 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
De Graafschap
2
Draws
4
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 4, Jong Ajax have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when De Graafschap 4-0 Jong Ajax.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for De Graafschap, 71% for Jong Ajax — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for De Graafschap and 67% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of De Graafschap's games and 71% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of De Graafschap's matches and 67% of Jong Ajax's.
Do De Graafschap and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.