Cambuur 3-1 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cambuur (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cambuur face VVV Venlo.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VVV Venlo make the trip to Kooi Stadion to face Cambuur in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 August 2025 at 15:45 UTC.
Form
Cambuur (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Kooi Stadion, Cambuur have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Cambuur are significantly better at Kooi Stadion than their overall form suggests.
VVV Venlo's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. VVV Venlo have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, VVV Venlo have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Cambuur's favour (2.00 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 4 previous meetings, Cambuur are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2025, ended 5–0 with Cambuur winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Cambuur and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Cambuur — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
VVV Venlo — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 44% versus VVV Venlo 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 44% | VVV Venlo 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.77 xG and VVV Venlo 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.938 / defence 0.819 | VVV Venlo attack 1.060 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.177. Data: 41 Cambuur games / 41 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 55% | Draw 23% | VVV Venlo 22%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | VVV Venlo 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 60% | VVV Venlo 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Aug 2025, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 55% | Draw 23% | VVV Venlo 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Cambuur 1.77 / VVV Venlo 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.938 / def 0.819 | VVV Venlo attack 1.060 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.02
VVV Venlo xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Cambuur vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 31 August 2025 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs VVV Venlo?
Cambuur 3 - 1 VVV Venlo.
Where is Cambuur vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs VVV Venlo part of?
Cambuur vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 55% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cambuur and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and VVV Venlo?
Record (4 meetings): Cambuur 3W | Draws 1 | VVV Venlo 0W.
What form are Cambuur and VVV Venlo in?
Cambuur (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. VVV Venlo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (0.94) and VVV Venlo's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VVV Venlo's attack (1.06x) against Cambuur's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
55%
1.82
23%
4.28
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Cambuur xG
Total xG
2.79
1.02
VVV Venlo xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
4%
26.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.1 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Cambuur and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.02 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs VVV Venlo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 41 outings, Cambuur have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 23W 6D 12L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VVV Venlo's form line: 12W 8D 21L from 41 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for VVV Venlo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Cambuur are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VVV Venlo.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 1.95 PPG from 20 outings (12W 3D 5L).
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 6W 3D 11L from 20 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cambuur are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.20 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Defensively: Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Early Season
VVV Venlo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 23W 6D 12L in their last 41 games (1.83 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 12W 8D 21L in their last 41 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or VVV Venlo away?
Cambuur's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.95 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Cambuur or VVV Venlo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, VVV Venlo in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 5-0 on 28 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against VVV Venlo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Cambuur
1
Draws
1
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and VVV Venlo?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 4, VVV Venlo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when VVV Venlo 3-0 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and VVV Venlo?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 50%, VVV Venlo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 45% for Cambuur and 75% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; VVV Venlo in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play VVV Venlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cambuur's recent matches and 50% of VVV Venlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambuur vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Cambuur's matches and 75% of VVV Venlo's.
Do Cambuur and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambuur cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over VVV Venlo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat VVV Venlo 3-1 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.77 xG and VVV Venlo 1.02 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cambuur beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.94 / defence 0.82 against VVV Venlo attack 1.06 / defence 1.15, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 55% | Draw 23% | VVV Venlo 22%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 44%, VVV Venlo 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.