Almere City FC vs Emmen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Almere City FC at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almere City FC vs Emmen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 22 as Almere City FC welcome Emmen to Yanmar Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 January 2027 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Almere City FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Almere City FC have posted 6W 1D 3L at Yanmar Stadion — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Emmen stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Emmen's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Almere City FC 1.70 PPG, Emmen 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Almere City FC: 4 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for Emmen, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 4–2 with Almere City FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Almere City FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Emmen in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 67% and Emmen 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Almere City FC 72% | Emmen 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 2.39 xG and Emmen 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.925 / defence 0.879 | Emmen attack 1.094 / defence 1.355. League average goals — home 1.909 / away 1.702. Emmen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.355 — this is suppressing Almere City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Almere City FC games / 43 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 55% | Draw 19% | Emmen 26%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 1.82 | Draw 5.26 | Emmen 3.85. The model has a clear lean to Almere City FC (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.03. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.03 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.39 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 60% | Emmen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jan 2027, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 55% | Draw 19% | Emmen 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 73% | xG Almere City FC 2.39 / Emmen 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.925 / def 0.879 | Emmen attack 1.094 / def 1.355 | league avg home 1.909 / away 1.702 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Emmen xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Emmen kick off?
Almere City FC vs Emmen is scheduled to kick off at 15:30 on Saturday 16 January 2027 at Yanmar Stadion.
Where is Almere City FC vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Emmen part of?
Almere City FC vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 55% chance of winning, Emmen a 26% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Almere City FC and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Emmen?
Record (6 meetings): Almere City FC 4W | Draws 1 | Emmen 1W.
What form are Almere City FC and Emmen in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Emmen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (0.93) and Emmen's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 2.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.9%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
55%
1.83
19%
5.16
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.0%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
4.03
1.64
Emmen xG
1.83
55%
Home win
5.16
19%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.73
Clean Sheet
19%
5.14
9%
10.95
Win to Nil
11%
9.42
2%
42.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.64 for Emmen, a combined total of 4.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Emmen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Almere City FC have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 22W 6D 15L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Emmen's form line: 16W 9D 18L from 43 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almere City FC on 1.67 PPG, Emmen on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Almere City FC have posted 1.86 PPG from 21 outings (12W 3D 6L).
On the road, Emmen have gone 5W 4D 12L from 21 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Emmen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Almere City FC are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.70 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Emmen in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Early Season
Emmen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Emmen in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 22W 6D 15L in their last 43 games (1.67 PPG), while Emmen have gone 16W 9D 18L in their last 43 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Emmen away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.86 PPG; Emmen away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almere City FC and Emmen runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Almere City FC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2021, when Emmen won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Almere City FC
1
Draws
1
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Emmen?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 4, Emmen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Almere City FC 4-2 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Emmen?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 57%, Emmen 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Almere City FC and 67% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Almere City FC's games and 57% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Almere City FC's matches and 67% of Emmen's.
Do Almere City FC and Emmen tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Emmen in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.