Ternana 1-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Sudtirol at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ternana vs Sudtirol encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Libero Liberati plays host to Ternana versus Sudtirol in Serie B (matchday 6). Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time.

Current Form

Ternana's record over their last 10 games: 0W 1D 9L (0.10 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Ternana at home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Ternana are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Sudtirol (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Sudtirol's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Sudtirol arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Sudtirol edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 6 May 2023, ended Ternana 0–1 Sudtirol — a Sudtirol win.

With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Ternana — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 36% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Sudtirol — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 70%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 51% versus Sudtirol 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 54% | Sudtirol 28%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ternana surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while Sudtirol have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 70% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 0.84 xG and Sudtirol 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.791 / defence 1.026 | Sudtirol attack 1.119 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.133. Ternana's attack rating of 0.791 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from Ternana's last 43 games and Sudtirol's last 42.

Result probabilities: Ternana 23% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 46%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 4.41 | Draw 3.17 | Sudtirol 2.18. Sudtirol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ternana's last 10 home games and Sudtirol's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ternana 60% (last 10 home games) | Sudtirol 30% (last 10 away games).

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