Feralpisalo 0-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Feralpisalo vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Pisa travel to Stadio Leonardo Garilli to take on Feralpisalo. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 September 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Feralpisalo stand at 0W 1D 4L from 5 Serie B matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Feralpisalo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Feralpisalo at 0.20 PPG versus Pisa's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Feralpisalo's 20% rate and Pisa's 30% (using overall form) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Profile
Feralpisalo in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 80% of games.
Pisa in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feralpisalo 20% versus Pisa 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Feralpisalo 40% | Pisa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feralpisalo 0.85 xG and Pisa 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feralpisalo attack 0.755 / defence 1.163 | Pisa attack 0.931 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.133. Feralpisalo's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Feralpisalo games / 42 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feralpisalo 24% | Draw 32% | Pisa 43%. Fair-value odds: Feralpisalo 4.17 | Draw 3.12 | Pisa 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Feralpisalo 20% | Pisa 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feralpisalo vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Leonardo Garilli • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feralpisalo 24% | Draw 32% | Pisa 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Feralpisalo 0.85 / Pisa 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Feralpisalo attack 0.755 / def 1.163 | Pisa attack 0.931 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Pisa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Feralpisalo xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Pisa xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feralpisalo vs Pisa kick off?
Feralpisalo vs Pisa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What was the final score in Feralpisalo vs Pisa?
Feralpisalo 0 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Feralpisalo vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What competition is Feralpisalo vs Pisa part of?
Feralpisalo vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Feralpisalo vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Feralpisalo a 24% chance of winning, Pisa a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feralpisalo vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Feralpisalo and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Feralpisalo vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Pisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Feralpisalo and Pisa in?
Feralpisalo (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Pisa (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Feralpisalo's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Feralpisalo's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
24%
4.12
32%
3.08
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Feralpisalo xG
Total xG
2.08
1.23
Pisa xG
4.12
24%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
7%
14.05
18%
5.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 15.3 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feralpisalo vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Feralpisalo and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Feralpisalo and 1.23 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Feralpisalo vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Feralpisalo's recent record stands at 0W 1D 4L from 5 games, a 0.20 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Feralpisalo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 3L across 5 games — 0.80 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pisa by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Feralpisalo heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Feralpisalo are averaging 0.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Feralpisalo have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Pisa in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feralpisalo
Early Season
Pisa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feralpisalo and Pisa in coming into this match?
Feralpisalo have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 games (0.20 PPG), while Pisa have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Feralpisalo and Pisa runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Feralpisalo
0
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Pisa?
From 2 meetings on record, Feralpisalo have won 0, Pisa have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feralpisalo and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Pisa 3-1 Feralpisalo.
Who has won more matches between Feralpisalo and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feralpisalo 20%, Pisa 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Feralpisalo) and 40% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Feralpisalo have failed to score in 80% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feralpisalo home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feralpisalo play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 60% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feralpisalo vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Feralpisalo's recent games and 40% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Feralpisalo and Pisa tend to score early?
Feralpisalo have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pisa in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pisa edge out Feralpisalo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Feralpisalo 0-1 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feralpisalo 0.85 xG and Pisa 1.23 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Feralpisalo fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feralpisalo attack 0.76 / defence 1.16 against Pisa attack 0.93 / defence 0.98, drawn from 5/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feralpisalo 24% | Draw 32% | Pisa 43%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feralpisalo 40%, Pisa 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feralpisalo's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 80% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pisa's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 0.80 PPG against 0.20. Form held, and they took the win. Feralpisalo conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.