Sudtirol 3-3 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sudtirol at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sudtirol vs Spezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 1 as Sudtirol welcome Spezia to Stadio Marco Druso. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 August 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sudtirol — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Sudtirol haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Sudtirol's home record at Stadio Marco Druso: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Sudtirol are significantly better at Stadio Marco Druso than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Spezia have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Spezia haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Spezia's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Sudtirol have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Spezia in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 41% versus Spezia 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 23% | Spezia 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.34 xG and Spezia 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.954 / defence 0.949 | Spezia attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.005. Data: 38 Sudtirol games / 0 Spezia games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 47% | Draw 33% | Spezia 20%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.13 | Draw 3.03 | Spezia 5.00. Sudtirol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sudtirol 50% | Spezia 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Aug 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 47% | Draw 33% | Spezia 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Sudtirol 1.34 / Spezia 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.954 / def 0.949 | Spezia attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Spezia xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Spezia kick off?
Sudtirol vs Spezia kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Spezia?
Sudtirol 3 - 3 Spezia.
Where is Sudtirol vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Spezia part of?
Sudtirol vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 47% chance of winning, Spezia a 20% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sudtirol and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Spezia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sudtirol and Spezia in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sudtirol's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Spezia's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
47%
2.14
33%
3.03
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.15
0.81
Spezia xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
5%
19.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.6 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.81 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 16W 16D 7L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. Sudtirol haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Spezia's form line: 6W 13D 20L from 39 games, 0.79 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L. Spezia haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Sudtirol are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Spezia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sudtirol have posted 1.63 PPG from 19 outings (7W 10D 2L).
On the road, Spezia have gone 2W 5D 12L from 19 away games — 0.58 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sudtirol are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 0.82 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Pre-Season
Spezia
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Spezia in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 16W 16D 7L in their last 39 games (1.64 PPG), while Spezia have gone 6W 13D 20L in their last 39 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Spezia away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.63 PPG; Spezia away: 0.58 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Spezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Spezia in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sudtirol and Spezia runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2026, when Spezia won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sudtirol's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
2
Draws
3
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Spezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 1, Spezia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Spezia 6-1 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Spezia?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 53%, Spezia 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for Sudtirol and 42% for Spezia.
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Spezia in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 42% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Sudtirol's recent games and 42% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Spezia tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Spezia in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol and Spezia share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 1, as Sudtirol and Spezia drew 3-3 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.34 xG and Spezia 0.81 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Sudtirol beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Spezia outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.95 / defence 0.95 against Spezia attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 47% | Draw 33% | Spezia 20%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 23%, Spezia 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Spezia's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sudtirol arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.68 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.