Cosenza 3-0 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Ascoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ascoli make the trip to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla to face Cosenza in Serie B, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 August 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cosenza have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Cosenza haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Cosenza's home record at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Cosenza are significantly better at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla than their overall form suggests.
Ascoli (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ascoli haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Ascoli have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Cosenza against 1.10 for Ascoli. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the last 4 meetings, Ascoli have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Cosenza's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Ascoli have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Cosenza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Ascoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 50% versus Ascoli 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 34% | Ascoli 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.21 xG and Ascoli 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.910 / defence 0.938 | Ascoli attack 0.942 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.035. Data: 38 Cosenza games / 38 Ascoli games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cosenza 41% | Draw 34% | Ascoli 26%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | Ascoli 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cosenza at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 30% | Ascoli 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 41% | Draw 34% | Ascoli 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Cosenza 1.21 / Ascoli 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.910 / def 0.938 | Ascoli attack 0.942 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Ascoli xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Ascoli kick off?
Cosenza vs Ascoli kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Ascoli?
Cosenza 3 - 0 Ascoli.
Where is Cosenza vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Ascoli part of?
Cosenza vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 41% chance of winning, Ascoli a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cosenza and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Ascoli?
Record (4 meetings): Cosenza 0W | Draws 1 | Ascoli 3W.
What form are Cosenza and Ascoli in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Cosenza (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cosenza's attack rating (0.91) and Ascoli's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ascoli's attack (0.94x) against Cosenza's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
41%
2.46
34%
2.96
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.12
0.91
Ascoli xG
2.46
41%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
8%
13.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 10.9 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.2 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.91 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cosenza's recent record stands at 8W 14D 16L from 38 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five. Cosenza haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 15L across 38 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five. Ascoli haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Cosenza against 1.24 for Ascoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 7W 7D 5L from 19 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ascoli's away record stands at 6W 5D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Cosenza are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.05 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Pre-Season
Ascoli
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 8W 14D 16L in their last 38 games (1.00 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Ascoli away?
Cosenza's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.47 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cosenza have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cosenza won 3-0 on 19 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cosenza have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ascoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cosenza
1
Draws
3
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Ascoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 2, Ascoli have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2024, when Ascoli 0-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Ascoli?
Ascoli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 53%, Ascoli 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Cosenza and 32% for Ascoli.
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Cosenza have failed to score in 26% of games; Ascoli in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Ascoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Cosenza's recent matches and 47% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Cosenza's recent games and 32% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Ascoli tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cosenza run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ascoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Ascoli 3-0 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.21 xG and Ascoli 0.91 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cosenza beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ascoli landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.91 / defence 0.94 against Ascoli attack 0.94 / defence 1.02, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 41% | Draw 34% | Ascoli 26%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 34%, Ascoli 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Ascoli's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.00 PPG, Ascoli 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.