Spezia 2-0 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spezia at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spezia host Sampdoria at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie B, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 April 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Spezia — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spezia have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio Alberto Picco — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sampdoria stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 0W 7D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Spezia carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Spezia, 2 for Sampdoria and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Spezia in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 46% versus Sampdoria 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 41% | Sampdoria 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.75 xG and Sampdoria 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 1.104 / defence 0.952 | Sampdoria attack 1.081 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.173. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Spezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 69 Spezia games / 69 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 49% | Draw 26% | Sampdoria 25%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Sampdoria 4.00. Spezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spezia at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 50% | Sampdoria 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 49% | Draw 26% | Sampdoria 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Spezia 1.75 / Sampdoria 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 1.104 / def 0.952 | Sampdoria attack 1.081 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Spezia (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Sampdoria xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Sampdoria kick off?
Spezia vs Sampdoria kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Spezia 2 - 0 Sampdoria.
Where is Spezia vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Sampdoria part of?
Spezia vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 49% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Spezia and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Sampdoria?
Record (7 meetings): Spezia 2W | Draws 3 | Sampdoria 2W.
What form are Spezia and Sampdoria in?
Spezia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Spezia's attack at 1.10x the league average against Sampdoria's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
49%
2.06
26%
3.77
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.96
1.21
Sampdoria xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.77
26%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
4%
23.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Spezia and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Spezia and 1.21 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 69 outings, Spezia have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 23W 30D 16L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Sampdoria's form line: 21W 23D 25L from 69 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spezia on 1.43 PPG, Sampdoria on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Spezia have posted 1.68 PPG from 34 outings (15W 12D 7L).
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 10W 13D 11L from 34 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Spezia are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.23 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria in 61%.
Last 69 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Current Season
Sampdoria
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 23W 30D 16L in their last 69 games (1.43 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 21W 23D 25L in their last 69 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Sampdoria away?
Spezia's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.68 PPG; Sampdoria away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Spezia or Sampdoria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sampdoria in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Spezia's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Spezia
3
Draws
3
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Sampdoria?
From 10 meetings on record, Spezia have won 4, Sampdoria have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sampdoria 1-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Sampdoria?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 50%, Sampdoria 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Spezia) and 56% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Spezia keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Spezia have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Spezia's games and 74% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Spezia's recent games and 56% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spezia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sampdoria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Sampdoria 2-0 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.75 xG and Sampdoria 1.21 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sampdoria landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.10 / defence 0.95 against Sampdoria attack 1.08 / defence 1.25, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 49% | Draw 26% | Sampdoria 25%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 41%, Sampdoria 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sampdoria's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 1.43 PPG, Sampdoria 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spezia win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.