Spezia 2-3 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spezia at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spezia host Cremonese at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie B, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 9 May 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spezia stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Spezia's home record at Stadio Alberto Picco: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Spezia are significantly better at Stadio Alberto Picco than their overall form suggests.
Cremonese — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Cremonese's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Spezia 1.30 PPG, Cremonese 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Cremonese, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Spezia.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Cremonese have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Spezia trading profile (74 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cremonese trading profile (74 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 47% versus Cremonese 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 42% | Cremonese 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.27 xG and Cremonese 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 1.141 / defence 0.857 | Cremonese attack 1.139 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.122. Data: 74 Spezia games / 74 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 39% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 30%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Cremonese 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spezia as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 50% | Cremonese 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Friday 9 May 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 39% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Spezia 1.27 / Cremonese 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 1.141 / def 0.857 | Cremonese attack 1.139 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Spezia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Cremonese xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Cremonese kick off?
Spezia vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 9 May 2025 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Cremonese?
Spezia 2 - 3 Cremonese.
Where is Spezia vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Cremonese part of?
Spezia vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 39% chance of winning, Cremonese a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Spezia and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Cremonese?
Record (5 meetings): Spezia 0W | Draws 2 | Cremonese 3W.
What form are Spezia and Cremonese in?
Spezia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Cremonese (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Spezia's attack rating (1.14) and Cremonese's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
39%
2.57
31%
3.25
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.37
1.09
Cremonese xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
8%
11.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Spezia and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Spezia and 1.09 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Spezia's recent record stands at 25W 32D 17L from 74 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 34W 23D 17L across 74 games — 1.69 PPG, with W-D-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spezia on 1.45 PPG, Cremonese on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 17W 12D 7L from 36 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 17W 10D 9L across 36 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Spezia are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.51 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 25W 32D 17L in their last 74 games (1.45 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 34W 23D 17L in their last 74 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Cremonese away?
Spezia's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.75 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Spezia or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cremonese in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spezia and Cremonese runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 June 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Nov 2023, when Cremonese won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Spezia's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Spezia
3
Draws
5
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Cremonese?
From 8 meetings on record, Spezia have won 0, Cremonese have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 1 June 2025, when Spezia 2-3 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cremonese see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 47%, Cremonese 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Spezia) and 56% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Spezia keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cremonese in 33%; Spezia have failed to score in 31% of games; Cremonese in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Spezia's recent matches and 50% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Spezia's recent games and 56% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Cremonese tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cremonese defy the odds to beat Spezia 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Spezia 2-3 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.27 xG and Cremonese 1.09 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Cremonese outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.14 / defence 0.86 against Cremonese attack 1.14 / defence 0.86, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 39% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 30%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Cremonese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 42%, Cremonese 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Cremonese's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 1.45 PPG, Cremonese 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.