Sassuolo 1-0 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sassuolo at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sassuolo vs Mantova encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Mantova travel to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to take on Sassuolo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024, 16:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sassuolo stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sassuolo have posted 4W 3D 3L at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore this season.
Mantova — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Mantova have posted 0W 2D 4L from 6 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sassuolo are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Sassuolo trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Mantova trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 64% versus Mantova 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sassuolo 46% | Mantova 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 2.08 xG and Mantova 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 1.307 / defence 1.089 | Mantova attack 0.786 / defence 1.356. League average goals — home 1.175 / away 1.068. Sassuolo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Mantova bring a strong defensive rating of 1.356 — this is suppressing Sassuolo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Sassuolo games / 11 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 62% | Draw 25% | Mantova 13%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 1.61 | Draw 4.00 | Mantova 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Sassuolo (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sassuolo as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sassuolo 50% | Mantova 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 62% | Draw 25% | Mantova 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG Sassuolo 2.08 / Mantova 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 1.307 / def 1.089 | Mantova attack 0.786 / def 1.356 | league avg home 1.175 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (62%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Mantova xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Mantova kick off?
Sassuolo vs Mantova kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Mantova?
Sassuolo 1 - 0 Mantova.
Where is Sassuolo vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Mantova part of?
Sassuolo vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 62% chance of winning, Mantova a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sassuolo and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Mantova?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sassuolo and Mantova in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Mantova (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Sassuolo vs Mantova?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sassuolo's attack rating (1.31) and Mantova's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 2.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Sassuolo's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
62%
1.61
25%
4.07
13%
7.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
3.00
0.92
Mantova xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
7.50
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
12%
8.02
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
2%
60.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Sassuolo and 0.92 for Mantova, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Mantova?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sassuolo's recent record stands at 6W 4D 1L from 11 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mantova, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 4L across 11 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sassuolo by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mantova heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sassuolo have managed 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mantova's away record stands at 0W 1D 4L across 5 trips, a 0.20 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mantova's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sassuolo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sassuolo are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.00 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Blended
Mantova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Mantova in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 6W 4D 1L in their last 11 games (2.00 PPG), while Mantova have gone 3W 4D 4L in their last 11 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Mantova away?
Sassuolo's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 2.00 PPG; Mantova away: 0.20 PPG.
Have Sassuolo or Mantova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Mantova in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sassuolo and Mantova runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Sassuolo
0
Draws
0
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Mantova?
From 2 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 2, Mantova have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Mantova 0-3 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Mantova?
Sassuolo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 60%, Mantova 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Sassuolo) and 20% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Sassuolo keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Mantova in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Mantova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 40% of Mantova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sassuolo vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Sassuolo's recent games and 20% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Mantova tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Mantova in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sassuolo edge out Mantova 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat Mantova 1-0 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 2.08 xG and Mantova 0.92 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sassuolo fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Mantova landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 1.31 / defence 1.09 against Mantova attack 0.79 / defence 1.36, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 62% | Draw 25% | Mantova 13%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 46%, Mantova 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mantova's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sassuolo arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Mantova (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.