Reggiana 1-1 Feralpisalo – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Reggiana at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Reggiana face Feralpisalo.

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Analysis

Feralpisalo make the trip to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to face Reggiana in Serie B (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Saturday 3 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Form

Reggiana (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Reggiana's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 7D 1L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Feralpisalo's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Feralpisalo's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Reggiana against 1.40 for Feralpisalo. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Reggiana's last 10 home games and Feralpisalo's last 10 away games) — Reggiana have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Feralpisalo in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Reggiana, 0 for Feralpisalo and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Reggiana 3–0 Feralpisalo — a Reggiana win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Reggiana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 22 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).

Feralpisalo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 22 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 59% versus Feralpisalo 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 50% | Feralpisalo 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.41 xG and Feralpisalo 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.833 / defence 1.076 | Feralpisalo attack 0.783 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.206. Feralpisalo's defence rating of 1.258 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Reggiana's projected output up. Feralpisalo's attack rating of 0.783 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Data: built from Reggiana's last 22 games and Feralpisalo's last 22.

Result probabilities: Reggiana 46% | Draw 28% | Feralpisalo 26%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.19 | Draw 3.58 | Feralpisalo 3.78. Reggiana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggiana at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggiana if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Reggiana 70% (last 10 home games) | Feralpisalo 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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