Ternana 0-1 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ternana at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ternana vs Como fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ternana host Como at Stadio Libero Liberati in Serie B, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Ternana have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana's home record at Stadio Libero Liberati: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Como — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Como have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ternana at 1.50 PPG versus Como's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Como have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Ternana's 0 victories.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with Como winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Como have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Ternana in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Como in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 57% versus Como 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 55% | Como 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.28 xG and Como 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.992 / defence 0.926 | Como attack 1.009 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.196. Data: 60 Ternana games / 60 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 39% | Draw 30% | Como 31%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Como 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ternana as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ternana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ternana 50% | Como 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Como | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 39% | Draw 30% | Como 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Ternana 1.28 / Como 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.992 / def 0.926 | Como attack 1.009 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Ternana (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Como xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Como kick off?
Ternana vs Como kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Como?
Ternana 0 - 1 Como.
Where is Ternana vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Como part of?
Ternana vs Como is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 39% chance of winning, Como a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Como?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ternana and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Como?
Record (5 meetings): Ternana 0W | Draws 1 | Como 4W.
What form are Ternana and Como in?
Ternana (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Como (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ternana's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Como's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Como's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
39%
2.57
30%
3.34
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.40
1.12
Como xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
9%
11.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.2 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Ternana and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Ternana and 1.12 for Como, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ternana come into this having played 60 games, going 16W 16D 28L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Como sit at 1.43 PPG from 60 outings (21W 23D 16L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ternana on 1.07 PPG, Como on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ternana's home form reads 11W 9D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Como have taken 1.13 points per game from 30 outings (7W 13D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Ternana are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.30 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Como
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Como in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 16W 16D 28L in their last 60 games (1.07 PPG), while Como have gone 21W 23D 16L in their last 60 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Como away?
Ternana's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.40 PPG; Como away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Ternana or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Como in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Como go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Dec 2022, when Como won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ternana's record when hosting Como specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Ternana
1
Draws
5
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Como?
From 6 meetings on record, Ternana have won 0, Como have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Como last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when Ternana 0-1 Como.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Como?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 50%, Como 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Ternana) and 43% (Como).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Como in 33%; Ternana have failed to score in 27% of games; Como in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Como?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ternana's recent matches and 50% of Como's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Ternana's recent games and 43% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Como tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Como in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Como defy the odds to beat Ternana 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como beat Ternana 0-1 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.28 xG and Como 1.12 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ternana fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.99 / defence 0.93 against Como attack 1.01 / defence 0.95, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 39% | Draw 30% | Como 31%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Como win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 55%, Como 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Como's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.07 PPG, Como 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Como win broke the near-deadlock. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Como (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.