Pisa 3-1 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Pisa at 44%, yet in-form Sassuolo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pisa vs Sassuolo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

Pisa welcome Sassuolo to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B (matchday 19). Kick-off is Thursday 26 December 2024 at 11:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Pisa — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters, Pisa have posted 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Sassuolo stand at 9W 1D 0L — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Sassuolo's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sassuolo — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Pisa's games and 60% of Sassuolo's (from Pisa's last 10 home games and Sassuolo's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Trading Patterns

Pisa in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Sassuolo in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 58%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pisa 66% and Sassuolo 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 55% | Sassuolo 54%). Note also that Sassuolo surrender HT leads in 58% of cases while Pisa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.53 xG and Sassuolo 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.335 / defence 0.874 | Sassuolo attack 1.267 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.055. Pisa carry an above-average attack rating of 1.335 — their 1.53 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Sassuolo have an above-average attack rating of 1.267, which lifts their away xG to 1.17. Data: built from Pisa's last 56 games and Sassuolo's last 18.

Result probabilities: Pisa 44% | Draw 29% | Sassuolo 27%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.28 | Draw 3.48 | Sassuolo 3.65. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sassuolo (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pisa's last 10 home games and Sassuolo's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pisa 60% (last 10 home games) | Sassuolo 60% (last 10 away games).

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