Modena 1-0 Pisa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Modena at 37%, yet in-form Pisa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Modena vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pisa make the trip to Stadio Alberto Braglia to face Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 December 2024 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Modena have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena at Stadio Alberto Braglia this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Pisa (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Pisa are 0.90 PPG clear of Modena in recent Serie B fixtures (2.10 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Modena lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Pisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Modena 58% and Pisa 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 44% | Pisa 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.46 xG and Pisa 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.073 / defence 1.102 | Pisa attack 1.165 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.080. Data: 55 Modena games / 55 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 37% | Draw 29% | Pisa 34%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Pisa 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Modena at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pisa (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Modena 50% | Pisa 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Dec 2024, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 37% | Draw 29% | Pisa 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Modena 1.46 / Pisa 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.073 / def 1.102 | Pisa attack 1.165 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: Modena (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Pisa xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Pisa kick off?
Modena vs Pisa kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 21 December 2024 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Pisa?
Modena 1 - 0 Pisa.
Where is Modena vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Pisa part of?
Modena vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 37% chance of winning, Pisa a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Modena and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Pisa?
Record (4 meetings): Modena 2W | Draws 1 | Pisa 1W.
What form are Modena and Pisa in?
Modena (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Pisa (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Modena's attack rating (1.07) and Pisa's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (1.17x) against Modena's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
37%
2.70
29%
3.42
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Modena xG
Total xG
2.85
1.39
Pisa xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
9%
10.81
8%
12.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.7 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Modena and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Modena and 1.39 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Modena's recent record stands at 14W 25D 16L from 55 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 21W 18D 16L across 55 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Modena against 1.47 for Pisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Modena have managed 9W 9D 9L from 27 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 9W 7D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Modena are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.47 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa in 67%.
Last 55 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Pisa in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 14W 25D 16L in their last 55 games (1.22 PPG), while Pisa have gone 21W 18D 16L in their last 55 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Pisa away?
Modena's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.33 PPG; Pisa away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Modena have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Modena
1
Draws
1
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Pisa?
From 6 meetings on record, Modena have won 4, Pisa have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Pisa 1-2 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Pisa?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Modena see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 52%, Pisa 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Modena) and 48% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Modena have failed to score in 26% of games; Pisa in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Modena's games and 63% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Modena's recent games and 48% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Pisa tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Pisa in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Modena edge out Pisa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Pisa 1-0 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.46 xG and Pisa 1.39 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pisa landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.07 / defence 1.10 against Pisa attack 1.17 / defence 1.10, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 37% | Draw 29% | Pisa 34%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 44%, Pisa 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Pisa's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.22 PPG, Pisa 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.