Pescara 2-2 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pescara at 35%, yet in-form Carrarese provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pescara vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia plays host to Pescara versus Carrarese in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 18 October 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pescara's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 2D 4L from 7 games (0.71 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.57 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Pescara have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pescara at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia this season: 1W 2D 1L from 4 home games — 1.25 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.71 — Pescara are significantly better at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia than their overall form suggests.
Carrarese (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Carrarese have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Carrarese are the stronger side — 0.69 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.71). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Pescara have seen both teams score in 75% of their games, Carrarese in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Pescara goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pescara 86% and Carrarese 43% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pescara 86% | Carrarese 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pescara 1.46 xG and Carrarese 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pescara attack 1.113 / defence 1.196 | Carrarese attack 1.056 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.111. Data: 7 Pescara games / 45 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pescara 35% | Draw 32% | Carrarese 33%. Fair-value odds: Pescara 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Carrarese 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pescara as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Carrarese (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pescara if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Pescara 75% | Carrarese 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pescara vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pescara 35% | Draw 32% | Carrarese 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 61% | xG Pescara 1.46 / Carrarese 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Pescara attack 1.113 / def 1.196 | Carrarese attack 1.056 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Pescara (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Pescara xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Carrarese xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pescara vs Carrarese kick off?
Pescara vs Carrarese kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia.
What was the final score in Pescara vs Carrarese?
Pescara 2 - 2 Carrarese.
Where is Pescara vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia.
What competition is Pescara vs Carrarese part of?
Pescara vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pescara vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Pescara a 35% chance of winning, Carrarese a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pescara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pescara vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Pescara and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Pescara vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pescara and Carrarese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pescara and Carrarese in?
Pescara (all comps): 1W-2D-4L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 1.57 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Carrarese (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pescara's attack at 1.11x the league average against Carrarese's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Carrarese's attack (1.06x) against Pescara's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pescara Win
35%
2.84
32%
3.13
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Pescara xG
Total xG
2.86
1.40
Carrarese xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
9%
11.57
8%
13.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pescara vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Pescara and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Pescara and 1.40 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Pescara vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 7 outings, Pescara have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 1W 2D 4L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pescara, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Carrarese's form line: 2W 4D 1L from 7 games, 1.43 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Carrarese are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pescara.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Pescara have posted 1.67 PPG from 3 outings (1W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 0.71 PPG overall — Pescara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Carrarese have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pescara are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.57 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pescara have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games.
Defensively: Carrarese in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pescara
Early Season
Carrarese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pescara and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Pescara have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 games (0.71 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 2W 4D 1L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pescara at home or Carrarese away?
Pescara's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pescara at home: 1.67 PPG; Carrarese away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Pescara or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pescara have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Carrarese in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pescara
2
Draws
0
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pescara and Carrarese?
From 2 meetings on record, Pescara have won 0, Carrarese have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pescara and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Carrarese 2-2 Pescara.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pescara see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Pescara, 67% for Carrarese — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Pescara) and 33% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Pescara keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Carrarese in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pescara home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pescara play Carrarese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Pescara's games and 67% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pescara vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Pescara's recent games and 33% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pescara and Carrarese tend to score early?
Pescara have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pescara and Carrarese share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pescara and Carrarese finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pescara 1.46 xG and Carrarese 1.40 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pescara attack 1.11 / defence 1.20 against Carrarese attack 1.06 / defence 0.96, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pescara 35% | Draw 32% | Carrarese 33%, with Pescara to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pescara 86%, Carrarese 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pescara's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
Carrarese's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Carrarese arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pescara (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Carrarese (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.