Padova 1-0 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Padova at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Padova vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Empoli travel to Stadio Euganeo to take on Padova. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 April 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Padova stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Padova have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stadio Euganeo — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Empoli — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Empoli have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Padova 0.80 PPG, Empoli 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Padova, 1 for Empoli and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with Empoli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Padova in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Empoli in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Padova 54% versus Empoli 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Padova 42% | Empoli 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.29 xG and Empoli 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.772 / defence 1.258 | Empoli attack 0.913 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.086. Padova's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Empoli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Padova's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Padova games / 33 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Padova 36% | Draw 31% | Empoli 33%. Fair-value odds: Padova 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Empoli 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Padova as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Padova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Padova 70% | Empoli 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Euganeo • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 36% | Draw 31% | Empoli 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Padova 1.29 / Empoli 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.772 / def 1.258 | Empoli attack 0.913 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Padova (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Padova xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Empoli xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Padova vs Empoli kick off?
Padova vs Empoli kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Stadio Euganeo.
What was the final score in Padova vs Empoli?
Padova 1 - 0 Empoli.
Where is Padova vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Empoli part of?
Padova vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 36% chance of winning, Empoli a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Padova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Padova and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Padova vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Empoli?
Record (1 meetings): Padova 0W | Draws 0 | Empoli 1W.
What form are Padova and Empoli in?
Padova (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Empoli (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Padova's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Empoli's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Padova's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Padova Win
36%
2.82
31%
3.21
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Padova xG
Total xG
2.54
1.25
Empoli xG
2.82
36%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
10%
9.81
9%
10.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Padova and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Padova and 1.25 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Padova come into this having played 33 games, going 8W 10D 15L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.09 PPG from 33 outings (8W 12D 13L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Padova on 1.03 PPG, Empoli on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Padova's home form reads 3W 7D 6L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.88 points per game from 16 outings (4W 2D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Padova are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.30 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli in 64%.
Last 33 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Current Season
Empoli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Padova and Empoli in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 8W 10D 15L in their last 33 games (1.03 PPG), while Empoli have gone 8W 12D 13L in their last 33 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Padova at home or Empoli away?
Padova's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Padova at home: 1.00 PPG; Empoli away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Padova and Empoli runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Padova
0
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Empoli?
From 2 meetings on record, Padova have won 1, Empoli have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Padova and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Padova 1-0 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Padova 69%, Empoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Padova) and 62% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Empoli in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Padova play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Padova's games and 50% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Padova vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Padova's recent games and 62% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Padova and Empoli tend to score early?
Padova have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Empoli in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Padova edge out Empoli 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Padova beat Empoli 1-0 at Stadio Euganeo, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Padova 1.29 xG and Empoli 1.25 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Empoli landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Padova attack 0.77 / defence 1.26 against Empoli attack 0.91 / defence 1.21, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Padova 36% | Draw 31% | Empoli 33%, with Padova to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Padova 42%, Empoli 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Padova's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Empoli's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Padova 1.03 PPG, Empoli 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Padova win broke the near-deadlock. Padova (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.