Cosenza 1-0 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reggiana at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cosenza vs Reggiana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cosenza host Reggiana at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 7 March 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cosenza stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Cosenza's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Reggiana have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Reggiana have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Reggiana are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Cosenza hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Reggiana, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2024, ended 1–0 with Cosenza winning.
The historical record gives Cosenza a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cosenza in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Reggiana in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 53% versus Reggiana 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 39% | Reggiana 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 0.92 xG and Reggiana 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.721 / defence 1.125 | Reggiana attack 0.895 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.083. Cosenza's attack strength of 0.721 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 66 Cosenza games / 66 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 28% | Draw 35% | Reggiana 37%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 3.57 | Draw 2.86 | Reggiana 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Cosenza dominate the H2H record, yet Reggiana are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Reggiana are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reggiana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Cosenza 50% | Reggiana 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Friday 7 Mar 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 28% | Draw 35% | Reggiana 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Cosenza 0.92 / Reggiana 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.721 / def 1.125 | Reggiana attack 0.895 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Reggiana xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Reggiana kick off?
Cosenza vs Reggiana kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 7 March 2025 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Reggiana?
Cosenza 1 - 0 Reggiana.
Where is Cosenza vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Reggiana part of?
Cosenza vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 28% chance of winning, Reggiana a 37% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cosenza and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Reggiana?
Record (3 meetings): Cosenza 3W | Draws 0 | Reggiana 0W.
What form are Cosenza and Reggiana in?
Cosenza (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Reggiana (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cosenza's attack rating (0.72) and Reggiana's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reggiana's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
28%
3.56
35%
2.89
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.01
1.09
Reggiana xG
3.56
28%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
9%
10.60
15%
6.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 14.7 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.09 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cosenza come into this having played 66 games, going 16W 25D 25L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Reggiana sit at 1.18 PPG from 66 outings (17W 27D 22L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cosenza on 1.11 PPG, Reggiana on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cosenza's home form reads 8W 13D 12L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggiana have taken 1.24 points per game from 33 outings (10W 11D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Cosenza are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.00 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Current Season
Reggiana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 16W 25D 25L in their last 66 games (1.11 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 17W 27D 22L in their last 66 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Reggiana away?
Reggiana's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.12 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cosenza go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2024, when Cosenza won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cosenza's record when hosting Reggiana specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Cosenza
0
Draws
0
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Reggiana?
From 4 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 4, Reggiana have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2025, when Cosenza 1-0 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Reggiana?
Cosenza have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 58%, Reggiana 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cosenza) and 39% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Reggiana in 30%; Cosenza have failed to score in 27% of games; Reggiana in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Reggiana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Cosenza's recent matches and 46% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cosenza's recent games and 39% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Reggiana tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cosenza defy the odds to beat Reggiana 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Reggiana 1-0 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 0.92 xG and Reggiana 1.09 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Reggiana landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.72 / defence 1.12 against Reggiana attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 28% | Draw 35% | Reggiana 37%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Cosenza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 39%, Reggiana 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Reggiana's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.11 PPG, Reggiana 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.