Cosenza 1-1 Modena – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cosenza at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla plays host to Cosenza versus Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Friday 22 November 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cosenza have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's home record at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Modena (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Cosenza, 1.00 for Modena — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Cosenza, 2 for Modena and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Cosenza half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Modena half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 53% versus Modena 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 37% | Modena 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.12 xG and Modena 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.850 / defence 0.970 | Modena attack 0.915 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.146 / away 1.079. Data: 51 Cosenza games / 51 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 37% | Draw 35% | Modena 28%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.70 | Draw 2.86 | Modena 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cosenza at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cosenza 60% | Modena 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Friday 22 Nov 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 37% | Draw 35% | Modena 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Cosenza 1.12 / Modena 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.850 / def 0.970 | Modena attack 0.915 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.146 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Modena xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Modena kick off?
Cosenza vs Modena kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 22 November 2024 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Modena?
Cosenza 1 - 1 Modena.
Where is Cosenza vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Modena part of?
Cosenza vs Modena is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 37% chance of winning, Modena a 28% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cosenza and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Modena?
Record (4 meetings): Cosenza 1W | Draws 1 | Modena 2W.
What form are Cosenza and Modena in?
Cosenza (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Modena (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Cosenza vs Modena?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cosenza's attack at 0.85x the league average against Modena's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Modena's attack (0.92x) against Cosenza's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
37%
2.71
35%
2.89
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.08
0.96
Modena xG
2.71
37%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
14%
7.05
9%
10.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 11.9 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.96 for Modena, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Cosenza have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 15W 20D 16L record — D-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Modena's form line: 13W 22D 16L from 51 games, 1.20 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Cosenza against 1.20 for Modena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cosenza have posted 1.12 PPG from 25 outings (6W 10D 9L).
On the road, Modena have gone 4W 14D 7L from 25 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Cosenza are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.16 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Modena in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 15W 20D 16L in their last 51 games (1.27 PPG), while Modena have gone 13W 22D 16L in their last 51 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Modena away?
Cosenza's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.12 PPG; Modena away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cosenza have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Modena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cosenza
3
Draws
2
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Modena?
From 6 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Modena have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Modena 1-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Cosenza, 68% for Modena — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cosenza) and 48% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Modena in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Modena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Cosenza's games and 68% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cosenza vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cosenza's recent games and 48% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Modena tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Modena in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cosenza and Modena share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 14, as Cosenza and Modena drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.12 xG and Modena 0.96 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.85 / defence 0.97 against Modena attack 0.92 / defence 1.16, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 37% | Draw 35% | Modena 28%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 37%, Modena 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Modena's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.27 PPG, Modena 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.