Modena vs Juve Stabia – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Modena at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Alberto Braglia plays host to Modena versus Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 21 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Modena (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Modena's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Alberto Braglia this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Juve Stabia have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Juve Stabia away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Modena, 1.30 for Juve Stabia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Modena have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Juve Stabia in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Modena 3W, Juve Stabia 2W, 0D.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Juve Stabia winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).

Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 52% versus Juve Stabia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 52% | Juve Stabia 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.31 xG and Juve Stabia 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.071 / defence 1.042 | Juve Stabia attack 0.878 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.271. Data: 45 Modena games / 44 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Modena 39% | Draw 30% | Juve Stabia 32%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Juve Stabia 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Modena 60% | Juve Stabia 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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