Mantova 2-3 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Mantova take on Pisa.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pisa make the trip to Stadio Danilo Martelli to face Mantova in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mantova's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mantova have posted 4W 3D 0L at Stadio Danilo Martelli — 2.14 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.43 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 7 home games (71%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Danilo Martelli. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.14 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Mantova are significantly better at Stadio Danilo Martelli than their overall form suggests.
Pisa (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Pisa are 0.70 PPG clear of Mantova in recent Serie B fixtures (1.80 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Mantova half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 14% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Pisa half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 40% versus Pisa 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 27% | Pisa 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 0.93 xG and Pisa 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 0.733 / defence 0.737 | Pisa attack 0.995 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.105. Mantova's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Mantova's defence rating of 0.737 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 15 Mantova games / 53 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 34% | Draw 39% | Pisa 27%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 2.94 | Draw 2.56 | Pisa 3.70. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.74 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates are neutral: Mantova 29% | Pisa 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 34% | Draw 39% | Pisa 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 37% | xG Mantova 0.93 / Pisa 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 0.733 / def 0.737 | Pisa attack 0.995 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Pisa xG
37%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Pisa kick off?
Mantova vs Pisa kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Pisa?
Mantova 2 - 3 Pisa.
Where is Mantova vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Pisa part of?
Mantova vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 34% chance of winning, Pisa a 27% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Mantova and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Pisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mantova and Pisa in?
Mantova (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Pisa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mantova's attack rating (0.73) and Pisa's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (0.99x) against Mantova's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 15/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.97
39%
2.54
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Mantova xG
Total xG
1.74
0.81
Pisa xG
2.97
34%
Home win
2.54
39%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
11%
9.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5 | 14.2 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.3%.
How many goals are Mantova and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Mantova and 0.81 for Pisa, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mantova's recent record stands at 4W 6D 5L from 15 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 2L across 15 games — 1.93 PPG, with D-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pisa by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mantova heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mantova have managed 4W 3D 0L from 7 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Mantova are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Pisa's away record stands at 3W 2D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mantova are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Pisa in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 4W 6D 5L in their last 15 games (1.20 PPG), while Pisa have gone 8W 5D 2L in their last 15 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Pisa away?
Mantova's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 2.14 PPG; Pisa away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Mantova or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mantova have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Pisa in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Mantova
0
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Pisa?
From 2 meetings on record, Mantova have won 0, Pisa have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Pisa 3-1 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mantova tend to start slowly — only 14% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 29%, Pisa 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Mantova and 43% for Pisa.
On the defensive side: Mantova keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; Mantova have failed to score in 29% of games; Pisa in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Mantova's recent matches and 57% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mantova vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Mantova's recent games and 43% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Pisa tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 14% of their recent matches, Pisa in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pisa defy the odds to beat Mantova 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Mantova 2-3 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 0.93 xG and Pisa 0.81 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Mantova beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pisa outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.73 / defence 0.74 against Pisa attack 0.99 / defence 1.03, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 34% | Draw 39% | Pisa 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Pisa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 27%, Pisa 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Pisa's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.