Mantova 0-0 Modena – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mantova at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Danilo Martelli plays host to Mantova versus Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 30 November 2024 at 16:15 UTC.
Form
Mantova (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova have gone 4W 2D 0L this season (6 games, 2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Danilo Martelli. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Mantova are significantly better at Stadio Danilo Martelli than their overall form suggests.
Modena's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Modena have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Mantova, 1.10 for Modena — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Mantova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 17% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 43% versus Modena 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 29% | Modena 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.09 xG and Modena 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 0.837 / defence 0.803 | Modena attack 0.912 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.102. Data: 14 Mantova games / 52 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 39% | Draw 37% | Modena 24%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 2.56 | Draw 2.70 | Modena 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mantova as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mantova if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.90 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Mantova 33% | Modena 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 39% | Draw 37% | Modena 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Mantova 1.09 / Modena 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 0.837 / def 0.803 | Modena attack 0.912 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.180 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Mantova (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Modena xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Modena kick off?
Mantova vs Modena kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Modena?
Mantova 0 - 0 Modena.
Where is Mantova vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Modena part of?
Mantova vs Modena is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 39% chance of winning, Modena a 24% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Mantova and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Modena?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mantova and Modena in?
Mantova (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Modena (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Mantova vs Modena?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mantova's attack at 0.84x the league average against Modena's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Modena's attack (0.91x) against Mantova's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
39%
2.56
37%
2.69
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Mantova xG
Total xG
1.90
0.81
Modena xG
2.56
39%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
8%
12.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 12.1 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Mantova and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Mantova and 0.81 for Modena, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mantova's recent record stands at 4W 5D 5L from 14 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 3W 6D 5L across 14 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Mantova against 1.07 for Modena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Mantova have managed 4W 2D 0L from 6 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Mantova are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Modena's away record stands at 0W 4D 2L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Modena's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mantova are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.36 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Modena in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 4W 5D 5L in their last 14 games (1.21 PPG), while Modena have gone 3W 6D 5L in their last 14 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Modena away?
Mantova's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 2.33 PPG; Modena away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Modena go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mantova have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Modena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mantova
1
Draws
3
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Modena?
From 4 meetings on record, Mantova have won 0, Modena have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Modena 2-1 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mantova tend to start slowly — only 17% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 33%, Modena 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Mantova and 33% for Modena.
On the defensive side: Mantova keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Modena in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Mantova's recent matches and 67% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mantova vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Mantova's recent games and 33% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Modena tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 17% of their recent matches, Modena in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mantova's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova and Modena finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.09 xG and Modena 0.81 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mantova fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Modena landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.84 / defence 0.80 against Modena attack 0.91 / defence 1.11, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 39% | Draw 37% | Modena 24%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 29%, Modena 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Modena's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.21 PPG, Modena 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mantova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.