Juve Stabia 2-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juve Stabia at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Sudtirol travel to Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti to take on Juve Stabia. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 December 2024, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Juve Stabia — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juve Stabia's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 3L across 7 games at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti this term (1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sudtirol stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Juve Stabia have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Juve Stabia in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 47% versus Sudtirol 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 53% | Sudtirol 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.18 xG and Sudtirol 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.816 / defence 1.221 | Sudtirol attack 0.785 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.105. Data: 15 Juve Stabia games / 53 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 36% | Draw 35% | Sudtirol 30%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.78 | Draw 2.86 | Sudtirol 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juve Stabia at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 43% | Sudtirol 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Friday 6 Dec 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 36% | Draw 35% | Sudtirol 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Juve Stabia 1.18 / Sudtirol 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.816 / def 1.221 | Sudtirol attack 0.785 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Sudtirol xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 6 December 2024 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol?
Juve Stabia 2 - 1 Sudtirol.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol part of?
Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 36% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 30% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Juve Stabia and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Sudtirol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juve Stabia and Sudtirol in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Sudtirol (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Juve Stabia's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Sudtirol's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
36%
2.81
35%
2.88
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.24
1.06
Sudtirol xG
2.81
36%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
12%
8.10
9%
10.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.3 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.06 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juve Stabia's recent record stands at 4W 7D 4L from 15 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sudtirol, meanwhile, have gone 4W 1D 10L across 15 games — 0.87 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Juve Stabia by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sudtirol heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Juve Stabia have managed 2W 2D 3L from 7 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sudtirol's away record stands at 2W 0D 5L across 7 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 0.93 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Defensively: Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 4W 7D 4L in their last 15 games (1.27 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 4W 1D 10L in their last 15 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Sudtirol away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.14 PPG; Sudtirol away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Juve Stabia's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Juve Stabia
1
Draws
1
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Sudtirol?
From 4 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 2, Sudtirol have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Sudtirol 1-1 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Sudtirol?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Juve Stabia 43% BTTS, Sudtirol 14%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Juve Stabia) and 43% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Juve Stabia have failed to score in 29% of games; Sudtirol in 71%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 14% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 43% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Juve Stabia edge out Sudtirol 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia beat Sudtirol 2-1 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.18 xG and Sudtirol 1.06 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Juve Stabia beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.82 / defence 1.22 against Sudtirol attack 0.79 / defence 1.18, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 36% | Draw 35% | Sudtirol 30%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 53%, Sudtirol 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Sudtirol's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.