Juve Stabia 2-2 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sassuolo at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juve Stabia vs Sassuolo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 11 as Juve Stabia welcome Sassuolo to Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 29 October 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juve Stabia stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juve Stabia's home record at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti: 2W 0D 2L from 4 Serie B appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
Sassuolo — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Sassuolo have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sassuolo are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Juve Stabia trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sassuolo trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 50% versus Sassuolo 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 50% | Sassuolo 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.06 xG and Sassuolo 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.894 / defence 1.132 | Sassuolo attack 1.348 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.122. Sassuolo have an above-average attack strength of 1.348 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Juve Stabia games / 10 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 21% | Draw 28% | Sassuolo 51%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 4.76 | Draw 3.57 | Sassuolo 1.96. Sassuolo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sassuolo at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sassuolo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 50% | Sassuolo 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 Oct 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 21% | Draw 28% | Sassuolo 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Juve Stabia 1.06 / Sassuolo 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.894 / def 1.132 | Sassuolo attack 1.348 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Sassuolo xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Sassuolo kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Sassuolo kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 29 October 2024 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Sassuolo?
Juve Stabia 2 - 2 Sassuolo.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Sassuolo part of?
Juve Stabia vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 21% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 51% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Juve Stabia and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Sassuolo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juve Stabia and Sassuolo in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Sassuolo (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Juve Stabia vs Sassuolo?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Juve Stabia's attack rating (0.89) and Sassuolo's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sassuolo's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
21%
4.67
28%
3.57
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.77
1.71
Sassuolo xG
4.67
21%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
18%
5.54
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
4%
25.86
18%
5.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.7 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.71 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Juve Stabia come into this having played 10 games, going 4W 3D 3L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sassuolo sit at 2.10 PPG from 10 outings (6W 3D 1L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sassuolo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Juve Stabia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Juve Stabia's home form reads 2W 0D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Sassuolo have taken 2.50 points per game from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sassuolo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 2.10 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo in 60%.
Defensively: Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Sassuolo in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 games (1.50 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Sassuolo away?
Sassuolo's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.50 PPG; Sassuolo away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Sassuolo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Sassuolo in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Juve Stabia and Sassuolo runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Juve Stabia
1
Draws
1
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Sassuolo?
From 2 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 0, Sassuolo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Sassuolo 2-0 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Sassuolo?
Sassuolo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Sassuolo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 50%, Sassuolo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Juve Stabia) and 25% (Sassuolo).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sassuolo in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Sassuolo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 50% of Sassuolo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 25% of Sassuolo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juve Stabia and Sassuolo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 11, as Juve Stabia and Sassuolo drew 2-2 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.06 xG and Sassuolo 1.71 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Juve Stabia beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.89 / defence 1.13 against Sassuolo attack 1.35 / defence 0.93, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 21% | Draw 28% | Sassuolo 51%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 50%, Sassuolo 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Sassuolo's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sassuolo arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sassuolo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.